Carlsbad, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

817
FXUS64 KSJT 131821
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
121 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low to Medium chance (20-40%) of showers and storms on Sunday
  along and west of a Throckmorton to Sonora line.
- Otherwise, conditions will continue to be dry and warm through
  the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Showers and storms forming in advance of a trough moving across NM
and the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin may eventually approach
our extreme western counties by late tonight. Otherwise, we should
see warm and dry weather again today. High temperatures today will
be similar to yesterday (upper 80s to low 90s), if not 1 or 2
degrees lower due to very slight weakening of the 850 mb thermal
ridge. High pressure to the east and low pressure associated with
the aforementioned trough will result in continued south to
southeasterly low level/surface winds, with some 15-20 mph gusts
late this morning and afternoon. Expect low tonight once again in
the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Isolated showers and thunderstorms that are possible across our
northwest counties during the late afternoon may linger into the
early evening hours, before dissipating by mid to late evening. Kept
slight chance PoPs for these locations during the evening hours.
Hot and mainly dry conditions are expected for the first half of
next week as an upper level ridge centered across northern Mexico
dominates our weather. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, with overnight lows in the 60s. On Thursday, an upper
level trough will track across the Great Plains, weakening the
aforementioned upper level ridge across northern Mexico. This will
result in temperatures a degree or two cooler than what is forecast
on Wednesday. Also, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible,
as the trough passes to our north. Confidence is low that we will
see showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with most locations
remaining dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
Sunday morning mainly across our western counties. Confidence in
coverage is too low to warrant a mention in the TAFS. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  92  70  92 /   0  20  10  10
San Angelo  69  90  67  91 /  10  30  10  10
Junction    66  90  65  91 /   0  10   0   0
Brownwood   66  92  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  71  89  70  92 /  10  40  20  10
Ozona       68  87  67  89 /  10  30  10  10
Brady       66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...42

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion