Shepard, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

543
FXUS63 KFGF 200430
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1130 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight, then
  shower chances slowly diminishing west to east over the
  weekend. Dry next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Main areas of light rain showers/heavy drizzle are in eastern
with lower coverage to the east, and activity continue to
generally follow expected trends. Main adjustment was to add
mention of fog to the forecast for the nighttime period
tonight/morning period Saturday.
UPDATE
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
There are several smaller pockets of showers where coverage is a
bit better (one near lingering deformation in northeast ND),
otherwise coverage has become much more scattered following
trends from previous forecast updates. Light fog is expected to
develop tonight, but impacts would be limited to aviation with
most vis above 1sm. Minor adjustments were made to near term
trends, otherwise the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Upper low centered over eastern SD will move slowly into
southern MN tonight. Meanwhile, the weaker circulation along the
southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border will close off over
eastern ND during the day tomorrow. CAMs show a trend of showers
weakening overnight as the first upper system pulls east and
then shower activity picking up again tomorrow as the northern
upper system moves down, and this seems fairly reasonable. Some
MU CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg in our far south could allow for some
isolated cells getting tall enough for lightning, but with
minimal shear any lightning threat will be short lived and
sporadic this evening. HREF has 70 percent probabilities of
over an inch of rain in the southern Red River Valley through
tonight and tomorrow. Probabilities of over 2 inches however,
are less than 20 percent. Some spots could see some moderate
rainfall rates moving over, but not enough to cause impacts
other than the usual delays in outdoor activity due to rain.
The upper trough pulls east into MN/WI on Sunday, and showers
will taper off by the end of the weekend. The upper trough
continues out over the Great Lakes on Monday, and there will be
a continued drying trend into the upcoming week. There is decent
agreement with the ensemble members on a fairly blocky ridge
setting up over the Rockies and troughing staying south over the
OH Valley and Midwestern states. Conditions turn towards again
drier and warmer than averages for our part of the Northern
Plains. Average temperatures are trending down however, and
readings will be not has hot as previous warm spells.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Low level moisture continues to remain in place as the slow
moving upper low persists, with scattered showers slowly
decreasing in coverage (better coverage lingering in northeast
ND early in the TAF period). Outside of a few localized "holes"
within the IFR stratus resulting in short periods of improvement,
IFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the Saturday
morning hours with a period of LIFR ceilings and potential light
fog development (1-3sm) after 06Z through 14Z. Eventually
ceilings and visibility begin to improve Saturday
afternoon/early evening, however this is the type of pattern
that guidance often overestimates the duration/coverage of
improving ceilings and I wouldn`t be surprised to see MVFR
continue to prevail at most sites. The best chance for VFR
ceilings would be towards central ND (possibly KDVL).
Winds remain light and variable as weak surface gradient and
low pressure slowly shifts east through the TAF period
(eventually prevailing from the northwest).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion