Adams, Massachusetts Weather Forecast Discussion

551
FXUS61 KALY 250452
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1252 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will gradually lift northward across the region
tonight into Friday, bringing additional rounds of showers and a
few thunderstorms. A cold front will then move eastward
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with more showers and
some possible stronger thunderstorms with downpours. It will dry
out Friday into the upcoming weekend, with temperatures
remaining above normal as high pressure builds in.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
- High confidence in a widespread soaking rainfall continuing
  through Thursday evening, with a 60-90% chance for greater
  than 1 inch of rain across the region in 24 hours.
- There is a Marginal Risk(level 1 of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms in parts of Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield
  Counties Thursday afternoon and evening.
Multiple rounds of showers are expected through Thu evening. A
warm front will gradually lift northward through Thu morning,
then a cold front pushes eastward across the region Thursday
evening/night. While there will be some breaks in the shower
activity, there will also be periods of steadier rainfall. The
most significant and widespread surges of rainfall look to be
late tonight into Thu morning associated with the warm front and
Thu afternoon/evening along the cold front. Beneficial rainfall
of ~1.00-2.50" expected in most areas (highest totals SE of
ALB), as PWAT and integrated water vapor transport anomalies are
forecast to exceed +2 to +3 STDEV through Thu evening. Combined
with forcing from the warm/cold fronts and upper level
diffluence east of a positively tilted upper trough over the
Great Lakes, will result in high probabilities for a
widespread/soaking rainfall. NBM probs continue to increase,
with a 60-90% chance of > 1.00" rain and a 40-80% chance of >
1.50" rain. Embedded convective elements will enhance rainfall
rates at times, although the flash flood threat will remain
relatively low due to the antecedent dry soils. This will be a
much needed rainfall for the area.
It will be mild and humid with the very moist air mass in
place. Low temperatures tonight will be well above normal,
ranging from mid/upper 50s in the mountains to lower 60s in
valleys. Humid conditions will remain in place on Thu, although
high temperatures won`t be significantly above normal due to
plenty of clouds/showers around much of the day. Highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will be most common, with dewpoints well
into in the 60s. There is a conditional severe weather threat
Thu afternoon/evening in the pseudo warm sector ahead of the
cold front. The main mitigating factors look to be lack of
appreciable instability (MUCAPE only ~250- 500 J/Kg from HREF)
and poor mid level lapse rates (< 6 degC/Km). Deep layer shear
is impressive around 35-45 kt with clockwise turning hodographs
and low LCL heights. So some storm organization with isolated
wind damage and/or a brief tornado is possible given the
expected environment. SPC did scale back the Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) area to just the far southern part of the area
(Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield counties) given the limiting
factors.
Showers will taper off from west to east Thursday night as the
cold front moves through. After some morning clouds and a few
showers in the W. Adirondacks Fri morning associated with the
upper trough axis, clouds should decrease Fri afternoon as
subsidence increases behind the trough. It will become gradually
less humid with continue above normal temperatures given the
lack of any substantial cold advection. Drier and cooler/less
humid conditions expected Fri night as high pressure builds in
from the north/west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Much of the long term period looks to be dry with above normal
temperatures likely persisting. High pressure looks to be the
dominant feature through early next week, with a mild air mass
remaining in place. A potential cut-off low over the
central/southern Appalachians may bring some showers north into
the mid Atlantic region Sat night into Sun, but should remain to
our south based on the latest guidance.
Guidance indicating a cold front pushing south from Canada will
move across our region in the Tue to Tue night time frame,
which would result in temperatures cooling back down to normal
levels by Wed in its wake. At this time it looks like it will be
a dry frontal passage, so there are no substantial chances for
any rain through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...Poor flying conditions will persist into this
TAF cycle as a warm front and trailing low pressure lift north into
the region today. MVFR/IFR conditions are primarily expected with
low stratus and rain showers. Latest CAMs favor showers for the
region through this morning, with a break for most through mid-
morning before another round of showers arrives for the
afternoon and evening. Locally gusty winds and thunder cannot be
ruled out, but not enough confidence to include with this set of
TAFs. Winds initially will be light out of the northeast- east
around or under 5 kts, with veering to the south- southwest
around 5- 10 kts through the daytime into the evening as the
warm front and low move through.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speck

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion