Agate, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

873
FXUS65 KBOU 082324
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
524 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated, high based showers/storms through the rest of the
  evening. Very little to no rainfall, but gusty winds of 40-50
  mph possible.
- Continued isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms the
  next few days. Better chances for rainfall by mid to late week.
- Warm weather continues all week, with a slight cooldown this
  weekend?
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
There`s a few showers out there this afternoon, but it`s generally
been quiet across most of the CWA as an upper level ridge
continues to slowly drift east. Temperatures have warmed into the
mid to upper 80s across the forecast area, but there`s very little
CAPE to work with dew points in the low to mid 30s.
Tomorrow should be relatively similar today as the ridge axis
drifts east of the forecast area and weak southwesterly flow
attempts to develop. There`s a little more moisture/instability
to work with, but most high resolution guidance doesn`t produce
much more than widely scattered showers/storms in the afternoon.
Southwesterly flow aloft will increase a bit as we get into the
mid/late part of the week, as an upper trough stalls over the
OR/ID/NV region and ridging builds across the southern Great
Plains. Guidance has above normal moisture across the region (PWAT
standardized anomalies ~1 sigma), and there should be scattered
convection across the area each day. Each day would feature better
precipitation chances across the higher elevations with lower
chances along and east of I-25. There isn`t a particularly strong
signal for widespread rainfall on any day, but the best moisture
appears to be either Thursday or Friday. Temperatures during the
period will be above normal with highs likely in the mid to upper
80s.
The trough should drift to the north and east over the northern
Rockies by this weekend, leading to a slightly cooler/drier
pattern across the area as we start to see more zonal flow. There
is fairly good agreement in the overall pattern, but given the
complex upper level pattern across the Northern Hemisphere/North
America, it wouldn`t be surprising to see a fairly large shift as
we get through the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 521 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms are possible through 03Z due to CAMs hinting
at lingering convection, so have extended the PROB30. With these
storms there could be VRB wind gusts up to 35kts. After that,
winds should turn southerly for APA and DEN before turning
drainage overnight for all TAF sites.
Light and VRB winds are still expected tomorrow morning. By the
afternoon, there should be an E/SE wind with another round of high
based showers by 20/21Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...Ideker

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion