Algodones, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

044
FXUS65 KABQ 191814
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1214 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1029 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief
  heavy downpours will favor western and central parts of the
  state this afternoon and early evening.
- There will be a high risk for burn scar flash flooding over the
  Ruidoso this afternoon and evening.
- After a drier and less active weekend, moisture will trend back
  up on Monday and bring an uptick in showers and storms across
  western and central NM.
- A backdoor cold front will cool-off the eastern plains Tuesday
  into Wednesday and may bring an uptick in showers and storms to
  central NM. However, we have lower forecast confidence beyond
  Tuesday at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1029 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
PWATs are surging across central and western NM, where the blended
TPW percentage of normal satellite derived product is roughly
120-160% of normal. So, plenty of juice today, we just need to
warm up and destabilize to get convection going. We`re still
anticipating an active afternoon and early evening, with all of
the CAMs showing storms taking off in the next 1-2hrs. The latest
CAMs are also in agreement showing storms moving east across the
middle and lower RGV between 3-7PM. Given PWATs above the 90th
percentile today, storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, but storm motion of 15-25mph should limit the flash
flood threat most areas. That said, a Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect until 10PM for the Ruidoso area burn scars where much less
rainfall is required to create flooding, especially given
saturated grounds from yesterday`s heavy rainfall. Storms are
forecast to follow a fairly typical diurnal downtrend this
evening, with very little remaining by midnight. PWATs trend down
significantly Saturday as drier westerlies prevail and the latest
water vapor satellite imagery shows this drier airmass over SoCal
and western AZ currently. We`re still anticipating isolated to
scattered convection Saturday afternoon, but mainly over the
mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1029 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Drier westerlies will continue into Sunday for central and eastern
NM, but PWATs will begin to ramp back up across western NM as a
Pacific low drops south offshore of SoCal and steers moisture over
the Desert SW. This trend will continue into Monday and result in
a round of convection across central and western NM, with the 12Z
NAM being particularly bullish with the qpf. The forecast from
Tuesday onward is still of low forecast confidence, with an omega
block forecast to develop and the exact placement of the upper
lows in question. Moderate to high forecast confidence on a
notable backdoor cold front pushing through late Monday night into
Tuesday, bringing some cooling to the eastern plains continuing
into Wednesday. The Pacific low is forecast to eject northeast
toward the Great Basin and Desert SW mid week and then move slowly
toward the central/southern Rockies through late week. This
scenario, combined with upslope flow from behind the backdoor
front would bring good chances for storms to central and western
NM Wed/Thu, but want to see more model run-to-run consistency
before increasing PoPs and assigning moderate or high forecast
confidence.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
short-lived MVFR conditions in sct/num showers and storms this
afternoon/evening. Short-lived IFR conditions in heavy rain can
not be ruled out. The KSAF/KABQ/KAEG airspace will be impacted by
storms between 20-01Z. Terminals least likely to be impacted by
storms today are KTCC and KFMN. Storms will diminish through the
evening hours. Patches of low stratus/fog may develop early
Saturday morning given sufficient clearing overnight, but forecast
confidence too low to include in TAFs at this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1029 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. Good chances for wetting storms will continue
through this evening, with a downtrend over the weekend given some
drying of the atmosphere. A resurgence of moisture is forecast
Monday, with an uptick in humidity and chances for wetting storms
across central and western NM. Sufficient moisture will linger
over the region to fuel chances for wetting storms through the
work week, especially over the mountains. A backdoor front will
move down the eastern plains Tuesday and bring cooler conditions
going into Wednesday. Chances for wetting storms may trend up
further Thu/Fri with the approach of a Pacific low, but forecast
confidence for late next week is low at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  80  52  81 /  20   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  40  77  39  78 /  20  20   0   0
Cuba............................  47  76  47  78 /  40  10   0   0
Gallup..........................  46  78  46  79 /  20   0   0  20
El Morro........................  48  75  48  76 /  50  10   0  20
Grants..........................  47  80  47  81 /  50  10   0  10
Quemado.........................  48  77  49  78 /  40  10   5  20
Magdalena.......................  52  78  53  81 /  40  10   5  10
Datil...........................  48  75  48  77 /  40  20   5  20
Reserve.........................  49  83  48  84 /  30  10   5  10
Glenwood........................  54  87  54  88 /  30  10   0  10
Chama...........................  40  71  40  73 /  20  30   5   5
Los Alamos......................  50  74  52  76 /  30  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  48  76  49  77 /  30   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  45  73  45  76 /  30  20   5   0
Red River.......................  38  64  38  66 /  30  30  10   0
Angel Fire......................  34  69  33  70 /  20  20   5   0
Taos............................  44  77  43  78 /  20  10   5   0
Mora............................  45  73  44  74 /  20  10   0   0
Espanola........................  49  81  48  83 /  30   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  50  76  53  78 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  49  79  49  81 /  30   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  83  59  84 /  50   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  85  56  86 /  50   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  87  55  88 /  50   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  85  56  86 /  50   0   0   0
Belen...........................  53  86  53  88 /  50   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  55  86  55  87 /  40   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  53  86  52  88 /  50   0   0   0
Corrales........................  56  86  56  88 /  50   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  54  86  54  88 /  50   0   0   0
Placitas........................  54  81  56  83 /  50   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  56  86  56  87 /  40   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  56  87  58  89 /  50  10   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  77  51  78 /  50   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  52  78  53  80 /  50   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  48  79  48  81 /  50   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  81  46  81 /  50   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  49  76  50  78 /  60   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  49  78  50  79 /  60   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  49  78  51  79 /  60   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  55  81  58  83 /  60  10   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  51  73  53  76 /  60  20   5  10
Capulin.........................  48  73  46  76 /  20  30  20   0
Raton...........................  47  78  46  80 /  20  30  10   0
Springer........................  48  81  46  82 /  20  20   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  48  77  48  79 /  20   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  56  80  55  82 /  10  20  10   0
Roy.............................  51  80  50  82 /  20  10   5   0
Conchas.........................  57  86  54  89 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  55  84  53  86 /  30   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  56  84  54  86 /  20   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  61  87  59  90 /  30  10   5   0
Portales........................  61  88  60  91 /  30  10   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  58  88  57  90 /  30   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  61  89  61  93 /  30  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  55  85  58  88 /  50  20   0   0
Elk.............................  53  82  54  85 /  50  20   5   5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion