Almena, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

324
FXUS63 KGLD 232350
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
550 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain is forecast to persist into the overnight hours. The
  Flood Watch has been extended until 9Z (4AM CT) for Logan and
  Gove counties.
- Dry conditions and a warming trend will follow, on Thu-Fri.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Precipitation is forecast to continue across much of the area until
Wednesday morning. An upper-level low is sitting across the CWA and
will slowly be moving on to the east later tonight. We can expect
cooler temperatures to persist across most of the area today, likely
topping out around 60 for locations that are seeing rain by noon.
The southeastern CWA will see temperatures warm into the upper 60s,
which will help fuel some embedded storms in the showers this
evening. CAPE looks to be limited to less than 400 J/kg with lapse
rates remaining under 8 C/km, so the potential for severe storms is
pretty low. However, we could see some small hail drop out of some
storms around 0-4Z where temperatures warm to around 70. The main
threat will be flooding this evening and tonight. There is more
information on the flooding threat in the Hydro discussion below.
Overnight tonight, the precipitation looks to start pushing out of
the northern CWA around 6-9Z and by 15Z, we expected only a few
showers to be lingering around the southeastern corner of the CWA.
Lows are forecast to cool into the mid 40 to mid 50s, the warmer
temperatures will be in the eastern CWA.
Wednesday looks to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s as a tilted
ridge starts to clear up the sky. Winds will still be from the
north-northeast for most of the day, which will help limit how warm
we get. Overnight Wednesday, temperatures look to cool into the mid
40s to low 50s for the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The long-term will be dominated with a high pressure system that
will keep the CWA fairly dry. We could see some gusts around 30 kts
near the end of the week or over the weekend. Temperatures will
generally range from the upper 70s to mid 80s, although there is a
35% chance a few places will see 90 either Sunday or Monday. Low
temperatures will be on a slow warming trend, starting off in the
upper 40s slowly climbing to around 60 by the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
For KGLD & KMCK... Rain remains in the area along with a very
moist airmass. For the first 6-12 hours of the period,
conditions will likely vary between VFR and IFR with rain
showers moving through. When rain is present, visibility should
generally be around 2-7SM with ceilings around 500-1500ft. When
rain is not falling, ceilings may become more scattered or lift
to around 2000-3500ft. There could be a few embedded
thunderstorms, though the overall chance is less than 10% at the
terminals. There could be a brief period of fog with visibility
around 1-3SM and ceilings around a few hundred feet once the
rain clears between 06-12Z. However, drier air should move in
fairly quickly and help conditions improve to VFR. If the air
does not dry out, the fog may persist until about 14Z.
After 12-14Z, skies should clear a bit and ceilings lift above
4000ft. Winds should remain from the north with speeds around
10-15 kts and occasional gusts to 15-20kts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Monday evening and overnight, we have received a report of 5.3
inches of rain falling, with a nearby location estimated to have
seen around 6 inches of rain near Russell Springs. Widespread
amounts of 1-2.5 inches across Logan and western Gove counties.
We are expecting, as the upper-level low moves to the southeast and
sparks more precipitation, some efficient rain producing storms to
form around Logan and Gove counties. Most likely, additional
precipitation around 0.25-0.6 inches will fall tonight, which should
not be a major cause for concern. However, the potential for
flooding will greatly increase if amounts exceed 1 inch. There is
about 50% confidence that at least one inch will fall and additional
flooding will occur. Worst case scenario, which has a 5-15% chance
to occur, 1.5-2 inches of rain will fall in the same area, leading
to significant flash flooding.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ028-029.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK
HYDROLOGY...CA

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion