Almora, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

238
FXUS63 KFGF 191932
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
232 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight, then
  shower chances slowly diminishing west to east over the
  weekend. Dry next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Upper low centered over eastern SD will move slowly into
southern MN tonight. Meanwhile, the weaker circulation along the
southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border will close off over
eastern ND during the day tomorrow. CAMs show a trend of showers
weakening overnight as the first upper system pulls east and
then shower activity picking up again tomorrow as the northern
upper system moves down, and this seems fairly reasonable. Some
MU CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg in our far south could allow for some
isolated cells getting tall enough for lightning, but with
minimal shear any lightning threat will be short lived and
sporadic this evening. HREF has 70 percent probabilities of
over an inch of rain in the southern Red River Valley through
tonight and tomorrow. Probabilities of over 2 inches however,
are less than 20 percent. Some spots could see some moderate
rainfall rates moving over, but not enough to cause impacts
other than the usual delays in outdoor activity due to rain.
The upper trough pulls east into MN/WI on Sunday, and showers
will taper off by the end of the weekend. The upper trough
continues out over the Great Lakes on Monday, and there will be
a continued drying trend into the upcoming week. There is decent
agreement with the ensemble members on a fairly blocky ridge
setting up over the Rockies and troughing staying south over the
OH Valley and Midwestern states. Conditions turn towards again
drier and warmer than averages for our part of the Northern
Plains. Average temperatures are trending down however, and
readings will be not has hot as previous warm spells.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
IFR to MVFR conditions at all TAF sites with showers and stratus
rotating around low pressure centered to our south. A mix of
VCSH, light rain, and BR through most of the afternoon and into
the evening. Some LIFR conditions at a few spots, but at this
point will keep more cloud cover and less visibility
restriction at most of the airports. Winds will shift around
from an east to northeasterly direction to more north to
northwest by the end of the period, but remain below 10 kts in
speed.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion