Amarillo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

674
FXUS64 KAMA 190903
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
403 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Isolated thunderstorms are currently located across Wheeler county
to Roberts county with another shower developing across
Sherman/Hansford counties. These storms are moving off to the
east/southeast with the main hazard being lightning with this
activity. These storms may continue for a few more hours and PoPs
have been updated based on the expected track of the storms. The
rest of the forecast remains on track for the rest of the night.
Muscha
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Best thunderstorm chances this weekend will be Saturday, with the
main concern being east of an Amarillo to Guymon line.
- Next potential impactful weather system to bring rounds of
  showers and storms starts Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Last of the upper trough is continuing to exit to the east as it
swings up to the Great Lakes region.  Northwest flow will be in its
wake tonight as there may be some isolated pop up storms along a
Guymon to Canadian line and east of that line. We do anticipate a
bit of a recovery day tomorrow as most of the moisture will be
limited to the NM area as that`s where the next main wave will be.
Maybe something squeezes into the western Panhandles in the late
evening.  On Saturday the wave is expected to move over the
Panhandles which will bring a better chance of precipitation, but
that will most likely be to the central and eastern Panhandles, as
the west may not heat up enough and destabilize before the main
forcing of the wave has passed, at which point the subsidence behind
the main wave will likely suppress any storm development.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
As the weak ridge axis moves over the central CONUS Sunday and
Monday we`ll have the warmest temperatures in the mid 80s to lower
90s.  Sunday does appear to be mostly dry with more moisture moving
into the Panhandles by Monday evening.  The rest of the extended is
highly in question as we have two weather systems, one near the Baja
and another over the interior Pacific Northwest.  The Baja system
is expected to help pump up more moisture to the Panhandles Tuesday
through Thursday as it slowly ejects to the northeast.  Now, the
bigger issue is that other weather system to the northwest, and what
its track will become.  There are several different solutions that
could impact the moisture, either amplifying or suppressing the
chances of precipitation.  So we`ll have to keep an eye that system
and the track to see what the impacts will be mid week.  Will note
that regardless of which solution pans out, it does look likely that
Tuesday through Thursday will have cooler than normal temperatures
as the system from the northwest brings that cooler air down.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
There is a still a low chance that we could have some early morning
fog or low cigs in the 09-15z time period, but confidence is not
high enough to note in the TAFs and will be dealt with via
amendments if conditions look to become more favorable.  Winds light
and variable for the time being, shifting more southerly around
10kts after 15z through the remainder of the TAF period.
Weber
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion