Andover, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

206
FXUS63 KMPX 152000
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue before more seasonable
  temperatures return to end the week.
- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms exist Wednesday
  through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Monday and Tuesday... Latest radar imagery highlights an area of
scattered thunderstorms across western Wisconsin. These storms
developed under an strip of forcing tied to a trough. This trough
and storms will both shift northward and out of the area over the
next 6 to 12 hours. Elsewhere, mostly sunny skies dominate 2/3rds of
the CWA with a broken layer across far eastern and southeast
Minnesota. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s and dew
points in the upper 60s make it feel much closer to July or early
August than mid September. We`ll see skies clear out tonight with
lows dropping only in the mid to upper 60s with light SE winds. On
Tuesday, we will hit the peak of our late season warm up. Highs will
warm into the upper 80s and a few locations could hit the lower 90s.
There could be isolated showers over W WI, but guidance doesn`t
really latch on to anything. These showers would be more diurnally
driven with the lack of any upper level support and shouldn`t be a
real concern. Overall - a pleasant, warm late Summer day. Enjoy it
while it`s here.
Wednesday through the weekend... Our pattern aloft will slowly begin
to break down. An upper level low over the Dakotas will tip toe east
as the ridging over the Great Lakes region holds steady. This will
set up an unsettled pattern as several rounds of diurnally driven
precipitation is in store for the Upper Midwest. The NBM maintains
30 to 60 PoPs through 00z Sunday, but do no plan for a continuous
rain. This is an artifact of timing & placement differences in the
various model and ensemble guidance. The severe weather chances are
low, but non-zero. The lack of synoptic forcing & wind shear means
that we`re likely to end up in the general thunder bin unless a
mesoscale feature can cause a local enhancement (IE an MCV).
Temperatures start a gradual drop Wednesday with highs in the lower
80s and we`ll "bottom out" in the lower 70s on Saturday before
rebounding in the mid 70s Sunday. This does mean we`ll see
temperatures go from well above normal to just above normal. What is
normal right now? At MSP: Average highs are currently in the lower
70s and fall to the upper 60s next week. Rainfall amounts will range
from 0.25" to 1.0" with locally higher amounts across western
Minnesota. Looking beyond the next 7 days, ensemble guidance
continues to favor a more northern storm track across Canada. That
should keep things quiet & mild through the end of September.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR for most sites this afternoon. Continuing to monitor
two bands of MVFR showers and thunderstorms moving NNE between RNH
and EAU currently. Its possible that either site could briefly see
some precip from either feature hence added a prob30 for
rain/thunder over the next couple of hours. Lingering iso/sct
chances for precip looks to linger into overnight but difficult to
pinpoint exact impacts for any given site thus will monitor and
amend timing/coverage where needed. Gusty southerly winds will
continue this afternoon for areas mainly west of MSP through this
afternoon before falling below 10kts overnight. Forecast soundings
hint at the potential of patchy fog to developing early tomorrow
morning for areas like AXN/STC but felt that winds combined with
warm environmental temps give me a lack of confidence to include any
lines mentioning fog. Tomorrow features high clouds with winds
shifting south-southwesterly at or below 10kts.
KMSP...Given the proximity of current axis of precip to the east and
now developing in southern MN, introduced a prob30 potential for
shra/tsra this afternoon mostly between 22-24z based of off current
radar/forecast trends. Additional redevelopment is possible
overnight although the strongest potential exists more over
Wisconsin. Breezy southerly winds will decrease this evening and
shift SSW`ly tomorrow around 10kts.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
FRI...MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Dunleavy

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion