Anthony, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

403
FXUS64 KEPZ 011650
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1050 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1050 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry conditions persist through the weekend.
- Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal as a drier air
   mass takes over. Southerly winds may also become a little
   breezy Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Flat zonal flow with an UL high over Mexico will keep us dry and
warm today. This UL high will slowly build north through the
remainder of the week, keeping us dry and warm. The high will
center itself over us by Thursday before shifting into the
Southern Plains on Friday. The eastward shift of the high will be
courtesy of a sharply digging UL trough along the West Coast.
Deepening southerly and southwesterly flow will allow subtropical
moisture to flow northward. The GFS shows isolated to scattered
QPF along the Arizona border Friday afternoon and evening, but
the NBM is not buying this solution.
The UL trough will continue to broaden throughout the weekend with
NM coming under increasing influence of the trough. An embedded
s/w within the growing long-wave trough will cross just north of
the Four Corners into CO on Saturday. Lee troughing will develop,
increasing our winds to the low-end breezy category as well as
shifting direction from southeast to west, especially west of the
Rio Grande. According to the Euro, this trough passage will also
sweep out our moisture though the GFS keeps meager moisture around
without any QPF.
As we go into next week, our subtropical moisture tap begins to
get reestablished. The GFS is the most aggressive with this tap
bringing QPF to areas west of the Rio Grande, but the NBM holds
low POPs to only our mountain regions. Just beyond the forecast
window, both models show our weather coming under the influence of
what would be "Priscilla" in the East Pacific for mid to late
next week. Presently NHC has not assigned an Invest number to the
tropical wave, but does label the area with an 80% chance of
formation within the next 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected beneath SKC-FEW110 and 250 with light
and variable winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
We will enter a dry and warm pattern, but with minimal to no fire
weather concerns. Afternoon highs will run a few degrees above
normal while min RH values drop into the upper teens in the
lowlands. Winds will be fairly light through Friday, topping out
at less than 10 MPH. Winds will increase some for Saturday,
topping out between 10 and 15 MPH. Venting categories will range
good to very good, increasing to very good to excellent on
Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  92  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            56  86  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  88  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               44  66  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    57  85  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              55  81  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   58  90  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                59  88  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       67  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                58  89  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             64  92  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               60  83  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  91  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             61  88  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           64  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            59  87  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    58  90  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 60  90  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                58  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  77  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                49  78  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 48  75  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  48  79  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                56  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                56  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             49  82  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   54  84  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    55  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               52  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  83  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   59  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  58  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           59  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               59  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion