Argyle, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

243
FXUS62 KJAX 260002
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
802 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Weekend Tropical Development Expected Near the Bahamas. Monitor
  hurricanes.gov for latest forecast updates. Increasing Marine &
  Surf Zone Hazards Early & Middle Portions of Next Week
- Thunderstorm Coverage Increases Friday & Saturday
- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Last of evening storm activity over inland areas will fade by
midnight leaving partly cloudy skies and humid conditions for the
overnight hours in the light SW flow off the Gulf, and this will
help to develop low clouds and fog across inland NE FL and inland
SE GA near the Suwannee Valley towards morning and expect at least
some locally dense fog in some areas of inland NE FL along the
I-75 corridor by sunrise Friday morning. Low temps generally in
the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast.
Forecast remains on track for Friday as hot and humid conditions
and SW flow will precede scattered to numerous showers and storms
in the afternoon hours as local sea breeze boundaries interact
with an approaching frontal boundary along with high moisture
levels with PWATs close to 2 inches. Locally heavy rainfall will
remain the main threat from storms, but isolated strong to severe
storms with gusty winds of 40-60 mph still possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Afternoon and evening showers and storms will build over the forecast
area today with the areas most likely for convective development
occurring along the sea breeze boundaries and along areas of
collision. Southwesterly winds will build in over inland areas
today and allowing the west coast sea breeze further eastward with
the vicinity of the sea breeze merger expected to occur between
the Highway 301 and I-95 corridors by late afternoon and into the
early evening hours. High temperatures today will rise into the
lower 90s this afternoon with overnight low temperatures dropping
into the lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Troughing aloft will continue to dig into the southeastern states
on Friday, with a shortwave trough currently located at the base
of this feature near the Ozarks / Tennessee Valley expected to
slow its forward progress as it traverses the southeastern
states. This trough and its associated shortwave will drive a
frontal boundary into our area by late Saturday. Deepening
southwesterly flow will transport tropical moisture into our
region ahead of this approaching front on Friday, with PWATs
rising above 2 inches across most of our area before sunset.
Energy embedded within this strengthening southwesterly flow will
develop numerous thunderstorms over the FL panhandle and the
northeastern Gulf on Friday morning, with this activity
progressing eastward towards the I-75 corridor and inland
southeast GA during the early to mid afternoon hours. Cloud cover
will thicken from west to east on Friday, with morning sunshine
east of the I-75 corridor in FL and along/east of U.S.-301 in
southeast GA allowing temperatures to soar into the lower 90s,
with maximum heat index values rising to the 100-105 degree range
for these locations. The Atlantic sea breeze will develop and push
inland towards the I-95 corridor by the early to mid afternoon
hours, setting up colliding mesoscale boundaries for areas east of
I-75 during the afternoon, with activity progressing quickly
northeastward towards coastal locations towards sunset. Although
bulk southwesterly shear values will only be around 20-25 knots,
colliding mesoscale boundaries may result in pulsing storms,
particularly around the I-95 corridor. Stronger storms tomorrow
may be capable of producing downburst winds of 35-45 mph along
with frequent lightning strikes. Faster storm motion tomorrow
should negate the risk for flooding rainfall, especially given
antecedent dry soil conditions across our area.
Additional rounds of convection are likely across our area on
Friday night and Saturday as deep southwesterly flow prevails
downstream of troughing digging into the southeastern states and
the approaching frontal boundary. Extensive cloud cover should
limit instability during this time frame, limiting chances for
stronger storms. However, locally heavy downpours are possible,
with these downpours being largely beneficial unless they
repeatedly move across or "train" over urban or low-lying areas.
Lows on Friday night will fall to the upper 60s and lower 70s,
with highs on Saturday remaining in the 80s. The frontal boundary
should then push eastward across our region on Saturday afternoon
and evening, with lingering evening convection possible along the
I-95 corridor. Inland lows should fall to the mid and upper 60s
for southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, with lower 70s
prevailing at coastal locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A complex weather pattern will exist late this weekend and early
next as a tropical disturbance currently near Hispaniola moves
northwestward across the Bahamas this weekend, likely developing
into a tropical depression or a tropical storm (Imelda).
Meanwhile, troughing over the Deep South will cutoff as a ridge
takes shape over the Upper Midwest and the Mississippi Valley,
with Atlantic ridging remaining in place over Bermuda. This ridge
will likely steer strengthening Tropical Cyclone Humberto between
Bermuda and Cape Hatteras by Tuesday. Humberto will likely be a
major hurricane over the western Atlantic, and it could interact
somewhat with Invest 94L (Imelda) early in the week. However,
Invest 94L will likely move on a north-northwest to northwesterly
course towards the southeastern seaboard, primarily being steered
by the cutoff upper trough over the Deep South.
This developing tropical cyclone and a gradually building surface
ridge over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will tighten our local
pressure gradient beginning on Sunday, with the aforementioned
frontal boundary expected to stall just off the Atlantic coast,
trailing southwestward across central FL. Northeasterly winds will
become breezy at coastal locations by Sunday afternoon, with
showers expected to increase in coverage and frequency by Sunday
evening along the I-95 corridor. Meanwhile, a drier air mass will
filter into southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, where mostly
sunny skies and dewpoints falling through the 60s will boost highs
to the upper 80s to around 90. Highs at coastal locations should
remain mostly in the mid 80s. Lows Sunday night will fall to the
mid to upper 60s for inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley
and the lower 70s elsewhere.
A low confidence forecast currently exists for early next week,
all predicated on the future movement and intensity of Invest 94L
(Imelda). Peripheral wind and rainfall impacts are expected along
the I-95 corridor, but any deviation westward in the future oath
of this system will bring increasing impacts to a larger portion
of our area. We expect northerly winds to become breezy on Monday
if this potential tropical cyclone remains offshore, with
northwesterly winds then developing on Tuesday if this system
pivots inland across the southeastern states. Highs will likely
remain in the 80s during the early to middle portions of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 801 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conds this evening, except for a brief MVFR TSRA at GNV
through about 01Z. Moist Southwest flow off the Gulf late tonight
will bring high chances of LIFR CIGS and VSBYS at GNV/VQQ in the
07-13Z time frame with MVFR fog chances at JAX from 09-12Z time
frame with likely remain only SCT low clouds at the Atlantic
Coastal terminals of SSI/CRG/SGJ. Low clouds should improve back
to VFR conds by the 14-15Z time frame at all TAF sites in light SW
flow at 6-8 knots, then diurnal heating will interact with
approaching frontal boundary/moisture along with inland moving sea
breeze boundaries to increase TSRA chances late in the TAF period
and have included PROB30 groups at all TAF sites in the 19-24Z
time frame for gusty MVFR TSRA activity through the end of the TAF
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
High pressure shifts south of the area today as a front approaches
from the northwest. Southerly flow increases ahead of the front
today and Friday with increasing thunderstorm chances. The front
moves south of the local waters Saturday. Northeast winds increase
Sunday and Monday as high pressure strengthens north of the region
and a potential tropical system nears the Bahamas. Building seas and
increasing winds nearing Advisory levels are expected early next
week as the tropical systems tracks north of the Bahamas. Local
interests should monitor the latest forecasts on this potential
tropical cyclone from the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Southwesterly surface and transport winds will weaken on Friday and
Saturday as a frontal boundary slowly traverses our region.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across our area.
Elevated mixing heights on Friday will persist across portions of
northeast and north central Florida, where good daytime dispersion
values are forecast. Fair to poor values are expected elsewhere due
to increasing cloud cover and rainfall chances, and fair to poor
values are then expected area-wide on Saturday. Surface and
transport winds will then shift to northeasterly on Sunday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Yesterday,9/24, Gainesville tied the record high of 95
(previously set in 1925). All other climate sites were within 1
degree of the record high for the date.
High temperatures will once again near daily record highs today:
DATE     9/25     Normals
JAX      96/2019  High: 86
CRG      95/2019  High: 85
GNV      96/1931  High: 87
AMG      98/1961  High: 86
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  89  68  84 /  50  80  70  50
SSI  74  87  72  83 /  20  70  70  60
JAX  72  92  71  86 /  20  80  50  70
SGJ  73  91  72  86 /  20  60  60  70
GNV  71  92  70  88 /  20  60  50  70
OCF  71  91  72  86 /  20  50  40  70
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion