Arkdale, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

813
FXUS63 KARX 021858
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
158 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures through the
  weekend. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Friday and
  Saturday.
- Showers and storms are possible (20-40%) Sunday evening
  through Tuesday.
- Near normal temperatures return next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Dry Conditions and Above Normal Temperatures
500hPa ridging and associated surface high pressure resides
over the Ohio River Valley today, setting up southerly flow over
the Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. Under this southerly
flow, warm air advection in the 925-850hPa layer sets up a stout
thermal ridge over much of the central United States, nosing
into our neck of the woods through the weekend. These warm
temperatures combined with mostly clear skies owing to a lack of
appreciable moisture and subsidence associated with the rising
heights should allow for effective warming, surging surface
temperatures into the mid to upper 80s, generally 20 to 25
degrees above normal for this time of year. Record high
temperatures remain in jeopardy Saturday at both La Crosse and
Rochester where the the forecast high temperature is 87F and 85F
with the record high temperature being 88F and 84F
respectively.
A shortwave trough at the 700hPa layer traverses the ridge in
place tonight into early Friday which combined with weak
moisture transport brings low probabilities for isolated showers
and perhaps a storm (10-20%) to portions of north-central to
central Wisconsin where moisture and instability is expected to
be slightly more plentiful. This is a slight increase in
probabilities over the past 24 hours, but the overall
environment is expected to be at least weakly capped which would
largely hinder convective development.
The primarily dry conditions continue into the weekend as
another shortwave ejects into the Northern Plains, promoting
surface cyclogenesis. A fairly dynamic system develops in
response with strong southerly 850hPa winds developing Saturday
and Sunday. With diurnal and turbulent mixing, these winds are
expected to efficiently transfer to the surface leading to
breezy conditions over the weekend, highest for those west of
the Mississippi River. In conjunction with the stronger winds,
the dry and warm atmosphere in place should result in continued
drying of soils and vegetation. All of this leads to the
possibility of elevated fire weather conditions this weekend.
The primary hindrance related to fire weather is the relative
humidity, which is currently expected to be 30-40%. However, if
mixing ends up deeper than currently expected, these values
could fall into the upper 20s.
Shower/Storm Probabilities Sunday Through Tuesday
The low pressure that develops over the Northern Plains this
weekend will move northeastward into southern Canada along the
ridge in place before transitioning eastward. As the low moves
east, a cold front will slide southeastward through the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. Precipitation probabilities are
initially low along the front as it moves through the region
owing to the dry antecedent conditions, but increase over
northeast Iowa into central Wisconsin overnight Sunday into
Monday (20-40%). The front is then expected to stall somewhere
from central Iowa into northeast Wisconsin for the beginning of
the week, allowing for additional probabilities for showers and
storms through Tuesday (30-60%).
Near Normal Temperatures Return Next Week
With the passage of the cold front, more Fall-like conditions
will give us a reprieve from the Summer-like temperatures. Cold
air advection behind the front will drop temperatures to near
normal for the beginning of the new week. High temperatures in
the 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s are expected through the week
with a dry reinforcing cold front and high pressure sinking
southeastward from Canada by the middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR expected through the 02.18Z TAF period. Confidence in local subsequent
widespread impacts will be increased winds overnight Friday
through Saturday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Here are daily record highs for Friday and Saturday with the
current forecasted high. (Record (Year) / Forecast)
October 3
La Crosse:  91 (1997)/ 88
Rochester:  93 (1997)/ 87
October 4:
    La Crosse:  88 (2005)/ 87
    Rochester:  84 (2005)/ 85
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...JAR
CLIMATE...Falkinham

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion