Ash Springs, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

447
FXUS65 KVEF 301137
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
437 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A series of disturbances will roll through the Western US this
  week, bringing precipitation chances to the Great Basin and dry,
  breezy conditions elsewhere.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Monday.
Morning satellite imagery shows a broad swath of mid-level and high
clouds associated with an incoming shortwave trough. As it pushes
through the area today, light to moderate rainfall is possible (20-
50% chances) in our Sierra and southern Great Basin zones. Cannot
rule out a few rumbles of thunder in northern Lincoln County.
Elsewhere, dry conditions continue with an uptick in afternoon
breezes. Temperatures remain near seasonable values until late in
the week as our next system moves in. Latest model guidance seems to
be coming into better agreement on the timing and strength of the
shortwave, most-likely arriving on Friday. Similar to today`s
system, late-week precipitation chances (20-40%) look to be largely
confined to the Sierra and southern Great Basin. However, the wind
and temperature response should be more robust, with widespread
gusts of 20-40 mph on Friday and temperatures falling 4-8 degrees
below normal over the weekend. Ensemble guidance suggests troughing
will linger over the western US into next week, keeping temperatures
seasonably cool and breezes elevated.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable/southerly winds will shift to the southwest by late
morning, becoming elevated and at least intermittently gusty
through mid evening. Sustained speeds of 10-15KT can be expected,
along with gusts to 20-25KT, though the probability of gusts
exceeding 25KT remains low (under 10%). Gusts will gradually
diminish after sunset. VFR conditions prevail, with passing mid
and high clouds between 10-25kft, clearing by Wednesday morning.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Across much of the
region, winds will settle out of the southwest by late morning or
early afternoon, becoming elevated and at least intermittently
gusty. Sustained speeds of 12-15KT will be common, with gusts to
20-25KT expected through sunset. Thereafter, gusts diminish, with
wind speeds decreasing to around 10KT or less overnight. The
primary exception will be across the Owens Valley, where winds
remain primarily terrain-driven with elevated up-valley winds
expected this afternoon. VFR conditions prevail areawide with FEW-
SCT clouds around 10-12kft and above, gradually improving late in
the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion