Avoca, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS63 KOAX 121930
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
230 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer on Friday and Saturday, with highs mainly in the upper
  80s to lower 90s. A bit cooler Sunday through Wednesday, with
  highs in the 80s.
- Mostly dry conditions expected through Saturday. Shower and
  storm chances return Saturday night into next week, with the
  highest chances Sunday afternoon and evening (20-50%), and
  Tuesday night (50-70%). A few storms could be strong to
  severe.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
WV imagery reflects an omega shape to the H5 flow, with troughs
on both coasts and an 592 dam ridge axis from TX toward Des
Moines. KOAX radar was detecting isolated showers north of I-80
this morning. These elevated showers are falling through a dry
boundary layer and have struggled to reach the surface. Most
locations received a trace or less, though just under a tenth
of an inch was reported at Stanton, NE. The showers have mostly
crossed into central Iowa at this point in the afternoon.
Clouds and those showers have inhibited temperatures over the
northern portions of the CWA this afternoon with low 80s
holding on there while some 90s have popped up farther south.
I`ve bumped up overnight lows just a bit from previous forecasts
thanks to the presence of quick southerly winds (LLJ is 35
knots at 1400 feet AGL) and because this is the time of the year
where the GEFS tends to run too dry. This results in the NBM
running a bit too warm in the afternoon and a bit too cool in
the morning. Expect lows near 70F. Weather provides no excuse
for skipping that morning jog.
.SATURDAY...
Saturday is probably the warmest day remaining in 2025. A thermal
ridge at H8 will be centered over eastern Nebraska, with the
nation`s warmest H8 temps found right here (99.5th percentile
NAEFS). Quick southerly winds of 10-20 mph should help highs
reach low 90s in almost every location, even those that fell
shy today. Despite this, we should fall well shy of the day`s
records set back in the droughts of the 1930s.
Standing records:
Omaha: :101: :1931
Lincoln: :102: 1931
Norfolk: :99: :1939
While we won`t be as dry as things were ninety-some years ago,
humidity levels will be low enough to preclude the need for heat
headlines. Heat indices will only be 2-5 degrees warmer than
actual temperatures at a maximum. Saturday night will be mild
again, too. Expect another nocturnal LLJ just above the BL.
.SUNDAY...
The thermal ridge is driven east by the approach of the upper
trof on Sunday. Temperatures will slip as a result, especially
in the western tier or three of counties of the CWA. A jet
streak will be rounding the base of the trof and passing
overhead mid-day. This should produce some pretty excellent
effective shear, but forcing for ascent will leave plenty to be
desired and it`s not even clear that the 1500 J/kg of forecast
instability will be realized with the possibility of widespread
cloud cover. The SPC has highlighted the area with a 5-10%
chance of severe weather in the afternoon and evening.
I`ve lowered PoPs a bit. They now sit at 20-50%.
.NEXT WEEK...
Behind the exiting system, temperatures won`t slip as quickly as
perhaps they`d be typically expected to. H5 flow remains out of
the southwest and temps will remain above normal through
Tuesday.
Wednesday brings a cold front through the area and better chance
of showers and thunder. Global models suggest this could be the
first in a parade of moisture-producing / temperature-stymieing
shortwaves. CPC mid-range precip outlooks corroborate by
leaning wet for this same period. Expect highs in the 70s for
the final three days of the 7-day.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Radar returns across the area show that some light rain showers
continue at about FL030 to FL010, but few are making their way
to the surface due to dry air under the clouds. These light
showers will come to an end by about 3pm Friday afternoon.
Southerly winds continue through the next 24 hours with gusts up
to 20 knots at times. From about 02Z Saturday to 14Z Saturday
(overnight tonight), stronger winds will be just above the
surface with 40 knot winds at about FL014.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion