Avondale, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

067
FXUS64 KBRO 072338 AAA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
638 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- There is a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall
   through tonight.
- Seasonal temperatures and rain chances continue into mid-
   September.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Abundant moisture with a meandering frontal boundary near the CWA
border and multiple remnant outflow boundaries continue increased
rain chances through tonight. CAMs have still waffled a bit on
timing, but overall the HRRR had the right idea, with convection
across the ranchlands and Rio Grande this morning slowly winding
down into the early afternoon. Most guidance limits convection
this afternoon into this evening, bringing it back along the
coastal counties from north to south tonight into Monday morning.
Have nudged high temperatures down today, with a good portion of
peak heating now lost. A similar cut may be needed tomorrow if
showers and storms persist through Monday morning.
The 12z BRO sounding showed an above normal PWAT of 2.03 inches
and a deep column of moisture in place with most model guidance
boosting PWATs up above 2.2 inches this afternoon through Monday
morning, especially along the coast. Light winds and little storm
motion will lead to locally heavy rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches
per hour with any persistent showers or thunderstorms.
For the remainder of the week, expect near normal temperatures
with continued daily rain chances, especially along the coast each
morning working inland with the sea breeze into each afternoon.
The NBM still appeared to be a little overcooked on POPs into next
weekend, so blended down with a little ADJMAV, CONSALL, and some
pencil work.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Light northeast to east winds with some low and high clouds prevail
across Deep South Texas early this evening. Generally light
northeast to east winds are expected to continue through the period.
Another round or two of convection is possible late tonight/early
morning and again Monday afternoon based on current CAMS. Brief MVFR
or IFR conditions will be possible in and around any convection.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Generally favorable winds and seas continue, with increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Winds and seas may
be elevated near any showers or thunderstorms. Waterspouts may
also be possible, especially near the edges of showers, with
lighter winds and abundant low level moisture.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  89  76  91 /  60  50  50  50
HARLINGEN               73  91  73  92 /  60  60  40  50
MCALLEN                 78  93  76  95 /  50  50  40  50
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  92  73  95 /  40  50  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  87  81  87 /  70  70  50  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  89  76  89 /  70  50  50  50
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...63-KC

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion