Axel, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

006
FXUS65 KGJT 012113
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
313 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure is building today, bringing drier conditions
  and temperatures around 5 degrees above normal.
- Breezy southwesterly winds and temperatures around 10 degrees
  above normal settle in for tomorrow and Friday.
- A low pressure system moves through Friday night into
  Saturday, bringing cooler and wetter conditions with more
  widespread wetting rain with some light mountain snow, before
  conditions dry out again early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Building high pressure is setting up a warm and quiet short
term period. Satellite imagery shows clouds popping up, mostly
over the higher terrain. Over the next few hours there could be
a few isolated showers, mostly over the high terrain north of
I-70 where moisture lingers. However, this evening through
Thursday night precipitation chances are near zero for the
entire CWA. Wind gusts look to increase tomorrow afternoon, up to
as much as 25 to 35 mph for some areas, as an approaching low
pressure system brings stronger winds aloft. High temperatures
today should be around 5 degrees above normal, but with the
building high pressure and decreasing cloud cover, high
temperatures rise to 5 to 10 degrees above normal tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Southwest flow will be in place Friday with a 100 kt upper level jet
setting up to our west over western Utah, allowing for deeper mixing
of winds aloft. Highs will remain 10 degrees above normal so a
rather warm and windy fall afternoon is in store. Moisture will
begin advecting in from the southwest ahead of this deep upper low
pressure trough over the Great Basin by late Friday afternoon and
evening, with showers and storms developing over the high terrain.
Precipitation chances and shower/storm coverage increases Friday
night into Saturday as this trough lifts across the north.
Temperatures are expected to drop by about 15 degrees on Saturday
compared to Friday, with daytime highs on Saturday averaging out to
around 5 degrees below normal. Snow levels will lower to around
10kft on Saturday and drop to near 9kft by Sunday morning as this
trough lifts across. While we are not anticipating significant snow
accumulation for the mountains, a couple inches is not out of the
question in some areas above pass level. Conditions will still be
rather wet and cold in the high country so stay up to date with the
latest forecast and be aware of changing conditions if traveling or
out in the backcountry leaf peeping.
The low pressure trough will lift out into the northern High Plains
by Sunday morning with drier southwest flow returning by Sunday
afternoon as another low pressure drops into the Great Basin by
early next week. Sunday`s temperatures will remain around 5 degrees
below normal with temperatures warming to near to 5 degrees above
normal early next week. Conditions look dry on Sunday and Monday but
a little bit more moisture advection looks to occur by Tuesday
through mid week from the southwest ahead of the next low, returning
some scattered showers over the San Juans and up the central Divide.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Scattered cumulus clouds will linger over the higher terrain,
particularly across northern and central areas through the early
afternoon before clearing out by late afternoon into the
evening. Clear skies will prevail overnight. Winds will
generally be light and terrain driven with some occasional
breezy conditions across the central mountain corridor. No
precipitation is expected.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion