Bakertown, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

699
FXUS63 KIWX 290655
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
255 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some patchy fog possible early this morning.
- Dry weather is expected to continue through the remainder of the
  week.
- Highs in the low to mid 80s persist into Tuesday with slight
  cooling for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
In this rex or omega blocking pattern, subsidence overhead will
continue to be maintained north and west of the tropical systems in
the Atlantic through this week as mid level ridging and surface high
pressure work in concert to suppress any development of rain
thus keeping the local area dry. The surface high pressure
system is expected to continue to keep the area in repeated east
flow especially overnight, which will allow Lake Erie to be a
source of moisture that could make fog be observed overnight
into each morning until we get to Thursday night when more
southerly winds take over.
Systems will continue to be pushed eastward in the flow but must
circumnavigate around the block to do so. One such system will be
the surface high pressure system that moves into southeast Canada
and the Northeastern US Wednesday and Thursday. Out ahead of
this high resides a boundary that is pushed towards the area as
a backdoor cold front. Its following airmass affects the area
with more widespread 40 degree dew points on Thursday. It still
looks like the limiting factor for fires spreading out of
control that day will be the weak winds, but MinRH percentages
in the 20s, which are a little unusual to forecast at this time
range are still expected to be common. The other change provided
by this backdoor cold front will be that high temps will drop
from the 80s into the upper 70s on Wednesday and Thursday and
some lows in the 40s will also be present.
A trough arriving to our west as early as the weekend may normally
be cause for cheer for those who want rain. However, the antecedent
dry air and still slow to depart high pressure bubble over the
eastern seaboard continues to wreck havoc on prospective rain
chances. This next mid level shortwave trough does look to shear out
and pass by to the north of the area and the next trough from the
west looks to shear out over the western US. Any hope for rain for
the area will have to come from a dying cold front early to mid next
week. Unfortunately, cold fronts generally don`t bring substantial
(drought/pattern busting) rain chances unless they provide a
convective chance and that is something we`ll have to wait for until
it gets closer to provide any concrete details.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Quiet, dry weather persists with light and variable winds and
VFR ceilings. Patchy ground fog is possible this morning,
although I have left it out of the TAFs as it will not be
operationally significant to the terminals. Winds will be out of
the north by the early afternoon at around 5 kts.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Johnson

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion