Baldwyn, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

272
FXUS64 KMEG 190440
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1140 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1046 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Hot temperatures with a low chance (30 percent or less) of rain
  will continue through the weekend.
- Temperatures will cool down to near normal next week as rain
  chances are on the rise.
- Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to a
  lack of appreciable rainfall and prolonged heat. This also
  raises wildland fire concerns through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Not much has changed with the forecast through the weekend. Hot
and mostly dry conditions will prevail again Friday, though PoPs
are just slightly higher (20%) in the afternoon due to a weak
attempt at a cold front passage. It`ll most likely be more
diurnally enhanced convection than any kind of organized system.
After that, a messy and nondescript surface pattern will give way
to mostly dry conditions and hot temperatures in the mid 90s
through Sunday. The end of the weekend into early next week is
when things start to get a bit more interesting, and also where
the highest forecast uncertainty lies.
The ridging pattern aloft begins to break down as early as Sunday
night as a broad trough digs from the northern Plains. As this
trough treks across the northern CONUS, the upper level divergence
will encourage more widespread showers and thunderstorms than we
have seen in a few weeks, as well as a welcomed cooldown. It`s
worth noting that 24 hours ago, ensemble model data depicted this
open trough amplifying to the point of becoming a deep cutoff low
over the Upper MS River Valley by Monday. This is now looking like
that won`t occur until Wednesday at the earliest. The forecast
impacts remain largely the same (blanket 30-40% PoPs and near
normal temperatures in the 80s), just pushed back a little later.
Digging into the long range ensemble space, this cutoff low will
essentially remain stationary over the Upper MS River Valley
before opening back up on Friday. The LREF mean 500 mb heights
look very promising with regards to temperatures; a fairly
distinct open trough looks to remain parked over the Mid-South
for a few days before collapsing to more zonal flow by the weekend.
This will keep temperatures pleasant in the mid to low 80s. Model
divergence increases pretty significantly beyond Friday.
CAD
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions and light winds expected to prevail at TAF sites
through the period. Latest 00Z data indicates a marginally better
potential (20-25%) for showers and thunderstorms mainly during peak
heating Friday afternoon at JBR and MEM. Thus, have included PROB30s
during this time period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Hot and mostly dry conditions continue each afternoon through the
weekend with MinRHs falling below 40% in some areas, particularly
near Holly Springs NF. Moving into next week, humidity and
wetting rain chances increase as temperatures decrease. The first
day for a chance (30-40%) of measurable rain areawide is Monday,
and this will continue through Wednesday. However, severe to
extreme drought has spread to much of the Mid-South and continues
to prime fuels for wildfire danger. Fortunately, winds should
remain light enough to preclude any significant fire danger.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion