Batavia, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

063
FXUS63 KLOT 081908
AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
208 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry weather expected the remainder of the work week
  with gradually warming temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Quiet, pleasant September weather expected through the rest of
the work week, potentially through next weekend, but forecast
uncertainty increases over the weekend.
Rex block over western North America is breaking down and looks
to transition to an Omega block over central portions of the
North America this week. As the Omega block forms, look for
upper ridging to expand eastward into the Mississippi Valley
resulting in warming temperatures and dry conditions. By later
this week, high temperatures should climb well into the 80s, but
with dewpoints expected to remain in the 50s, it shouldn`t be
too uncomfortable.
Shortwave trough is progged to move across the area Tuesday
night into early Wednesday. Low levels are expected to be quite
dry, so expect the radar will light up with virga, but most of
the precip should evaporate before reaching the ground due to
the very dry low levels. Certainly can`t rule out some sprinkles
or even a light shower, but chances for measurable rain look
low.
The 12z operational runs of the GFS and especially the ECMWF
drive a strong cut off upper low from Hudson Bay due south into
the Great Lakes over the weekend into early next week. There
isn`t much support in the ensemble means for these solutions,
owing to quite a bit of spread among ensemble members from both
the EPS and GEFS. If this morning`s operational ECMWF and GFS
runs are onto something, then the weekend could end up cooler
and potentially wetter. Given the wide array of solutions,
confidence is on the lower end of the spectrum and didn`t
deviate from the NBM which is weighted heavily toward last
night`s 00z model runs. Certainly worth keeping an eye on model
trends in coming days.
- Izzi
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
There are no significant aviation forecast concerns for the
current TAF period. Predominantly south-southwesterly winds to
around 10 kts will continue through the afternoon today before
diminishing slightly and turning east-of-south this evening.
Winds should become south-southwesterly once again soon after
daybreak tomorrow and will likely be a touch higher during the
daytime compared to today. VFR conditions will prevail through
the TAF period.
Ogorek
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS LOT Office Area Forecast Discussion