891 FXUS65 KLKN 232053 AFDLKNArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 153 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 146 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
* Quiet and dry weather through Wednesday.
* Frost expected over the valley locations in central and eastern NV Wednesday morning as lows dip well into the 30s again.
* Precipitation chances increase late in the week.
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.DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are sunny with light winds over the area today. This is due to high pressure over the area. This upper ridge is sandwiched in between two low pressure systems, one over the front range of the Rockies in Colorado and the other off the coast of California. Look for a quiet night tonight with cool lows in the 30s and 40s. This will result in some of the cooler locales seeing frost. The good news is this will not last as the ridge will continue its slow, eastward trek tomorrow. This will result in another fall day with highs in the 70s and 80s. Winds are going to be light. It will be another quiet night, though clouds will be on the increase from the previously aforementioned low pressure system in the eastern Pacific. Lows will be in the 40s.
On Thursday, the upper trough is forecast to come ashore in California. Precipitation chances are expected to increase Thursday in central Nevada (thirty to forty percent chance) with isolated thunderstorms (about fifteen percent chance) over mainly US Highway 50 south. Total expected rainfall amounts in the valleys looks to be a tenth of an inch or less. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s across central Nevada due to the cloud cover and chances for rainfall. Further north, the northern portions of Nevada are expected to see readings in the 80s. Winds will again be on the light side with some intermittent gusts to 20 mph. Light, isolated showers continue for the Thursday overnight period in central Nevada, while the weather remains dry in the north with readings in the 40s.
On Friday and Saturday, the model solutions take the upper low south across southern California and northern Mexico. PoPs have been lowered for central Nevada during this time with only isolated, intermittent showers expected. The north remains dry. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the 80s north, in the 70s central. Winds will remain on the light side. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.
Models open the closed low late Saturday night and lift it northeast Sunday. Light rain showers (fifteen to thirty percent) and isolated thunderstorms (fifteen to twenty percent) will be prevalent over the forecast area though any rainfall is expected to be intermittent and light. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 40s.
Another trough is possible early next week but confidence remains low at this point. Highs will be in the 70s Monday and Tuesday with lows in the 40s.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No major changes were made to the NBM as confidence remains high through roughly Thursday morning on dry conditions. Rainfall amounts have come down slightly and as such, only low to moderate confidence on the QPF amounts.
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.AVIATION...Under high pressure VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday afternoon with no precipitation anticipated. Afternoon winds will be light at all terminals.
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.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will remain over the fire district Wednesday as high pressure moves overhead. This feature will slide eastward Thursday, allowing for a closed low to push into southern California and affect the central Nevada fire zones with light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Light rainfall amounts is expected (less than a tenth of an inch in the valleys). Winds will remain on the light side. The pattern of dry conditions in the north and clouds/light rainfall will continue through roughly early Friday. A brief break will occur Friday but the low pressure system is forecast to drift north and east during the weekend. Light showers and thunderstorms are forecast with winds fairly light with gusts only to 20 mph.
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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. &&
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DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...86
NWS LKN Office Area Forecast Discussion