Bear Creek, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

386
FXUS63 KFGF 141732
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1232 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 1 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms today across
  much of eastern North Dakota and parts of west central and
  northwest Minnesota. Additionally, there is a 2 of 5 risk for
  severe thunderstorms across central North Dakota into parts of
  the Devils Lake Basin. Hazards could include isolated
  tornadoes, hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and wind gusts to 70
  mph.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Fog has lifted across the region. Stratus continues to linger
west of the Red River Valley with clearing in the middle of the
Valley. Because of this, the probability for more widespread
showers and thunderstorms is increasing for the area late this
afternoon and early evening. The most likely timeframe for
severe convection is between 4 PM and 9 PM tonight.
UPDATE
Issued at 916 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
An SPS has been issued for areas of fog this morning west of the
Red River Valley. This should improve through the morning. The
other main change to the forecast is the adjustment northward of
the Slight Risk over the Devils Lake Basin. This is due to
increasing probability in the location for tornadic supercells
this afternoon. This may arise within the marginal risk as well,
however the probability is lower owing to forcing being west of
the area.
UPDATE
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Low clouds and patchy fog are being observed this morning across
parts of the area, with east to southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
and temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The forecast remains on
track this morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...Synopsis...
An upper low is moving slowly northward across the Central High
Plains and into the Northern Plains. To the east, H5 ridging
continues to move slowly to the east, allowing south to southwest
flow into the Northern Plains. This will bring a chance for showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon, evening, and overnight, with
isolated to scattered severe storms possible. This H5 low continues
northward into Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba on Monday, with
shortwaves propagating into eastern North Dakota during the
afternoon and evening hours. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is possible, with a mention of stronger storms being
supported. Heading into Tuesday, shortwave activity continues as the
overall H5 pattern begins to shift, bringing a slow moving, nearly
cut off, upper trough eastward into the Central and Northern Plains.
Much cooler, near seasonal, temperatures will follow.
...Severe Thunderstorms Chances This Afternoon and Evening...
H5 upper low moves northward into western Nebraska and South Dakota
this afternoon and evening, with leading instability and good low
level shear. SBCAPE, in the 2000 to 3000 J/Kg range, will combine
with 0-3Km shear upwards of 25 to 30 knots. Strong low level lapse
rates during the late afternoon and evening will support development
in an already favorable forcing environment. As such, there is
support for low top supercells capable of producing tornadoes, hail,
and damaging wind gusts. Hail is supported, albeit with about 1.0 to
1.25 inches being the upper limit, mainly due to an overall lack of
0-6Km shear, which is roughly 25-30 knots in most model soundings.
Best chances for supercells will be west of the Red River Valley
where storms form in closer proximity to the approaching upper low.
CAMs remain in somewhat good agreement that initiation is likely to
begin as early as 22Z in eastern North Dakota, with activity
persisting into the late evening or early overnight period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
IFR to MVFR ceilings will continue to lift through the early
afternoon eventually becoming VFR. A line of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop late this afternoon and
progress northward. Gusty and erratic winds are likely with
these storms, generally gusting to between 40-55 knots. Hail is
also a possibility with these storms.
Storms look to exit the area after 06z for the most part, with
lingering showers potentially continuing. Winds will shift to
more southerly, increasing after 12z tomorrow to sustained
between 15-20 knots.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Lynch/Perroux
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Perroux

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion