Bellaire, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

624
FXUS63 KAPX 091007
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
607 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Light scattered showers expected for parts of eastern upper today.
-High pressure will return overall quiet weather this week along
with  temperatures climbing into the 70s.
-Precipitation potential returns this weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Pattern Synopsis...Weak shortwave troughing tracks across Lake
Superior today. Weak stationary boundary formation will generate
enough moisture to return showers across eastern upper. The
remainder of the eastern CONUS will be under the influence of
surface high pressure, keeping chances of precipitation mainly north
of the bridge along with sunny skies along with highs in the 70s.
Forecast Details...
Today... Showers will spread across the upper peninsula throughout
the entirety of the long term. The previously mentioned boundary
will remain northwest of the CWA, but enough moisture will spread
into Mackinac and Chippewa counties. Highest QPF probabilities will
be at Whitefish point with total rainfall ranging between a tenth to
quarter inch. The remainder of the CWA can expect the cloud cover to
remain north of the bridge. Most sunny skies will result in daytime
highs in the low to mid 70s this afternoon with diurnal heating
processes.
Tonight...Cloud cover will become mostly cloudy for northern lower
and mostly overcast across eastern upper. Overnight lows will drop
somewhat more efficiently with radiational cooling processes.
Overnight lows across northern lower will drop to the mid 40s for
interior counties while eastern upper along with locations near the
shorelines remain in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel ridging pattern begins to build across
the central CONUS this week supporting mainly quiet weather through
Friday. This pattern will support daytime highs pushing highs near
or slightly above climatological normals for early September.
Current midlevel troughing over northwest parts of Canada will makes
its way to the Great Lakes region this weekend while developing
surface low pressure. Chances of precipitation return this weekend
into early next week as this system tracks southward across the CWA.
Forecast Details... A few light showers across eastern upper this
Wednesday remains possible, but very weak forcing and high pressure
trying to advect northward will keep rainfall amounts near a trace.
Overall conditions are expected to dry as we approach the end of the
work week. Long range ensembles continue to push precipitation
returning to the Great Lakes region as early as Saturday. Models
continue to depict the core of low pressure tracking directly over
the CWA, indicating a pattern of rounds of showers rather than just
one or two period. Southern stream midlevel flow will cut off
effective moisture to this shortwave leading to relatively low
rainfall totals at this time. Still too early to give details with
regards to rainfall amounts.. but probabilities of rounds of showers
keeping the region wet this weekend continue to grow.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period for most
TAF sites. Some -SHRA may approach CIU through the day today,
but the better chances will arrive later tonight. All other
sites will contend with some high cloud and dry conditions today
and tonight. Breezy SSW conditions to prevail, gusting to 20kts
at times this morning before easing a touch int he afternoon.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ095-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion