Birch Run, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

969
FXUS63 KDTX 071724
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
124 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool again today with highs in the 60s and lows in the lower 40s.
- Warming temperatures with drier weather next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate 10-15kt west winds have drawn renewed moisture in from Lake
Michigan resulting in a healthy coverage of diurnal cu. This cloud
remains firmly VFR (at or above 5kft) through the early evening
before dissipating with sunset. Some areas of patchy fog are
possible late tonight as the center of high pressure reaches SE MI.
High drifts over the region Monday limiting cloud cover and keeping
winds light.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft today.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
DISCUSSION...
A significant lobe of absolute vorticity and H5-H3 low height
anomaly is digging into the central Great Lakes this morning. Models
signal an infusion of right entrance region dynamics during the next
6 hrs primarily from Lake Huron to points northeastward. A few
reflectivity returns have dotted the radar, but no precipitation is
anticipated as synoptic scale lift passes flashes across the region.
Forecast soundings show active subsidence developing that will
effectively dry out the 4.0 to 9.0 kft agl layer. Cold midlevel
temperatures will support a diurnal cumulus response by midday,
otherwise very quiet weather. Highs in the middle to upper 60s.
Rising geopotential heights will result in very pleasant weather for
the beginning of the week. Strong midlevel static stability and a
dry airmass should result in cloudfree skies on Monday. High
temperatures right around 70 degrees. Upper level confluence will
then drive the weather for the middle of the week as persistent
surface ridging holds on over the region. Models support a weak
frontal boundary becoming orphaned in vicinity of northern Lower
Michigan by Wednesday night and Thursday. Various shortwaves pushing
southward may allow for isolated showers to develop along this
frontal boundary, but low moisture over Southeast Michigan will
limit precipitation chances here locally. Dry conditions are
forecasted the end of the week through day 7 with daytime
temperatures running 2 to 5 degrees above normal late in the period.
MARINE...
Upper level trough remains in place over the region with a weak
trough sweeping through this afternoon.  This combined with the cool
air aloft, will keep the chance of showers and waterspouts going
though most of the day. Overall the airmass will be drying out so we
do expect a decreasing coverage of showers later in the day. Surface
high pressure will be building in from the south today and tonight
and will persist through Tuesday. Winds will back from northwesterly
today southwesterly for Monday as the high pushes east. Tuesday and
Wednesday should offer a break from the cooler air with the
southerly flow and warm air advection across the area ahead of the
next cold front.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion