Black Meadow Landing, California Weather Forecast Discussion

900
FXUS65 KVEF 250407
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
907 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Precipitation potential exists Thursday through this weekend as
  anomalous moisture interacts with an upper level disturbance.
  Details and weather impacts continue to remain low confidence.
* Moisture lingers into early next week which could allow for
  continued precipitation chances, however low confidence in next
  week`s forecast at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Through Tuesday.
Current satellite imagery shows an upper level low off the central
California coast producing thunderstorms in the San Joaquin Valley.
The low is expected to track east into Nevada on Thursday, then
south into southern California/Arizona on Friday. PWATs in the area
are in the .5 to 1 inch range, which combined with favorable
dynamics associated with the low should kick off showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. However, confidence is still low in
the details as it depends on the strength, speed, and placement of
the low, along with available moisture and cloud cover that could
inhibit afternoon convection. For Thursday, the best chances for
precipitation are in northern Inyo County, the southern Great Basin,
and northern Mohave County where difluence aloft should help with
shower and thunderstorm development. Clearing in the afternoon may
increase instability and help with more robust storm development,
with gusty outflow winds and heavy downpours as potential hazards.
For Friday, the greatest precipitation chances are pushed into
northwestern Arizona as the low moves south and east, taking the
greatest moisture with it.
The upper level low tracks east across the lower Colorado River
through on Saturday and Arizona on Sunday. Ensembles indicate a
boost in moisture at this time as the low reaches a favorable
position to tap into tropical moisture. POPs should increase for
most locations on both Saturday and Sunday. However, confidence in
details is low at this time and finer details should become more
apparent over the next few days. Confidence is also low in what will
happen Monday onwards as this will depend on how fast the low exits
and how much moisture will linger over the region. Outside of
precipitation, lower heights should help maintain near to below
average temperatures over the weekend and next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Winds overnight will remain light out of the southwest to west.
For tomorrow, northeasterly winds under 10 knots return tomorrow
morning, shifting to the southeast in the afternoon with low
confidence that a few gusts around 15 knots could occur. A push of
gusty southwesterly winds arrives in the mid-afternoon with gusts to
around 20 knots, decreasing in the evening. VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period, with only a FEW mid-level clouds
with bases between 10 and 12kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds under 10 knots for
most areas overnight, although KDAG will see some gusts out of the
west to northwest through 10Z. For tomorrow, gusty southwesterly
winds pick up in the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley in
the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorm activity should start to
pick up in the late morning in the southern Great Basin and parts of
the eastern Sierra. While confidence in storms within the vicinity
of KBIH is low, ceilings decrease to around 8kft. Elsewhere, FEW to
SCT mid and upper level clouds move through the area.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Gorelow
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion