654 FXUS63 KPAH 280718 AFDPAHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 218 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions expected through next week.
- Temps will remain a few degrees above normal through early week then come down to around normal mid to late week.
- Mid to late week forecast is becoming clearer, with little to no impacts expected from a tropical disturbance off the Carolina coast.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
High pressure at the sfc and aloft rules over the region through at least early week. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s till mid week, lows in the 50s to near 60. Expect mostly clear skies and light winds out of the north and northeast. Some patchy fog is possible again this morning, mainly along the Mississippi river and up to Mt. Vernon, IL.
Mid week onward is still somewhat uncertain but is becoming clearer with time. Focus is on the tropical disturbances off the Carolina coast. TD 9 which may become TS Imelda looks to skirt up the East Coast to the Carolinas and then gets pulled out to sea slightly by a passing hurricane Humberto to the east and high pressure to the north over New England. With this outcome, ensembles increasingly favor dry conditions for our region mid week onward with continued high pressure dominance. Temperatures are expected to be in the lower 80s Thursday onward (closer to normal).
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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The strength of the grip of the surface high pressure ridge overtop the flight terminals only increases this forecast package, with modeled isallobaric pressure rises of 5-6 mb. Other than FEW-SCT diurnal bases again in the 5-7K FT AGL range, and patchy predawn fog possibly offering temporary conditional restrictions to vsbys, it`ll be a tranquil and restriction-free forecast.
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.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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DISCUSSION...HICKFORD AVIATION...
NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion