Bluff Springs, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

653
FXUS64 KEWX 141731
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal afternoon highs continue through the week.
- Low end chances for showers and storms along the Rio Grande
  today.
- Low chances for isolated rains continue during the week, but
  most will likely remain dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
A low-pressure system and attendant mid- to upper-level trough are
currently the process of ejecting northeast out of the Rockies and
into the High Plains. Broad ascent south of the outgoing trough and
afternoon heating are enabling the development of a few
isolated showers and storms along the Rio Grande and should
continue to do so into the late afternoon and evening, though
chances are low and coverage is expected to be sparse. Elsewhere
across South- Central Texas, residual ridging aloft is helping
to maintain dry and warm weather. Tonight looks a degree more
mild than previous nights as a minor surge of moisture keeps
lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
On Monday, models indicate a weak inverted 700mb trough tracking
east to west into our area. This brings some cooling just above a
deep mixed layer, which could support isolated showers and a spotty
thunderstorm over the Coastal Plains to I-35 corridor Monday
afternoon to Monday evening. This potential is reflected in the HREF
and experimental REFS ensembles, and low-end 15% PoPs have been
added for portions of the aforementioned areas. Still, broader
ridging over the area will reduce synoptic forcing for ascent, so
activity should remain isolated and will likely come to an end by
sunset, if not earlier. Dry conditions should continue to prevail
for most Monday, with highs again in the low to mid 90s. Lows Monday
night are forecast to be in the mid 60s to around 70, coming down a
few degrees as marginally drier continental air reaches our
area.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Expect very similar temperatures through the rest of the week with
highs generally in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to
low 70s across the region. Ridging strengthens some Tuesday but then
weakens as another trough swings across the Rockies and Great
Plains. This may result in an increased opportunity for some lower
end rain chances for our area as low-level moisture makes use of the
reduced capping aloft, though most of the trough`s influence will be
felt farther north. Daily PoPs up to about the 20 percent range are
depicted Wednesday through Friday, with chances starting to creep
into the Coastal Plains Wednesday afternoon and spreading across the
rest of South Central Texas Thursday and Friday. Some of the medium-
range models bring a weak surface front near our area Friday, though
it has minimal signature aloft and has little impact on the weather
here aside from possibly being a slight focus for showers and
storms. The trough`s influence moves fully out of area by the
weekend, leading to a switch back to drier weather.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
VFR conditions start the period everywhere except DRT where low
clouds remain ahead of weakening convection. It is a bit uncertain
how long low ceilings will remain at this location but have opted to
only go out a couple hours at this time. SCT/FEW clouds will remain
over the I-35 terminals today with southeasterly wind which may
occasionally gust to around 20 knots. Models are not suggesting low
ceilings tomorrow morning but given previous days have put in some
low SCT clouds at 2.5kft for all sites except AUS for
persistence.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  94  71  95 /   0  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  94  69  95 /   0  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  94  68  95 /   0  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  90  69  90 /   0  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  94  72  93 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  93  69  93 /   0  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             69  93  68  93 /   0   0  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  95  67  95 /   0  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  93  66  94 /   0  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  93  71  94 /   0  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           73  95  71  96 /   0  10  10   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM...Tran
AVIATION...27

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion