Boothbay Harbor, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

220
FXUS61 KGYX 230106
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
906 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east tonight and bring a return of
southwest winds Tuesday. That will allow temperatures to soar
once more, pushing 80 degrees in spots. As a cold front
approaches Tuesday night into Wednesday the best chance of rain
showers will also arrive in the area. Especially across southern
parts of the forecast area nearly a quarter inch of rain on
average is possible. Another chance of rain is possible Thursday
as well, with similar potential rainfall totals. We will take
any rain we can get.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
905 PM Update...Minor update to capture latest observed
temperature and dewpoint trends. Have also made some minor
tweaks to PoPs based on latest hi res guidance with increasing
chances for showers across the north tonight.
Previously...
Full sun continues this afternoon with southerly breeze. Winds
will tend to subside this evening, but light mixing will keep a
light wind going much of the night, especially along the coast.
Another round of fog is expected over the lower Kennebec Valley
overnight, becoming more patchy to the south and west. The
combination of more clouds and light low level mixing will
create a fairly mild night, especially compared to the previous
few as lows only bottom in the lower 50s.
Showers now located over Lake Ontario will slowly drift east
tonight, eventually bringing light precipitation to the wester
ME mountains and northern NH. It will take awhile for the
present dry air to erode, and this should keep much of the
shower activity at bay until during the day Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Initial warm front will bring moisture to the front door, but
incoming frontal boundary Tuesday will push further across NH
and ME later. SW moisture flow will move in line with New
England, bringing a period of unsettled conditions to the
region.
While temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper 70s
Tuesday, there will be isolated to scattered showers invading
from the west. Jet dynamics are lacking, but 1.5 inch PWAT
should lead to some heavier showers into the afternoon with
marginal instability.
By the evening and early overnight warm cloud depth improves as
does mean RH with tall thin CAPE. Motion vectors do align in a
way that could lead to some training cells as embedded waves
move along the broad unsettled region and slow moving boundary.
This morning`s HREF QPF solution was very damp (relatively
speaking) for southern NH. Members were mostly in agreement with
each other, bringing the front through northern NH and much of
southern ME before better forcing intensifies showers late.
Depending on the placement, showers train along this boundary
and to the south of it into the later afternoon and evening
hours. Should these be efficient and move over the same
location for awhile, totals around or above 1 inch will be
possible. Would like to see some continuity before honing in on
location and any higher amounts.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message: Finally some chances for rain thru the end of the week.
The rain will be welcomed but do little to alleviate drought.
Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated beyond
maintaining/deepening drought conditions.
Forecast Details: The first batch of rain will be exiting the area
Wed morning. Cannot rule out some pop up showers during the
day...but it will likely be dry and lingering PoP is more of an
artifact of timing uncertainty in model guidance.
This is primarily due to the fact that northwestern Atlantic
ridging builds back quickly as large upper low over the Midwest
lifts into the Great Lakes. This WAA pattern will keep temps
running near to above normal...but also keep the threat of
showers in the forecast due to diurnal heating.
The strongest push of WAA will occur on Thu...and that may bring
another round of light wetting rain. Ensemble guidance is a little
more spread with this event...but similar to Tue into Wed...the 90th
percentile rainfall is about a half inch and a mean around 0.20
inches. It will not be enough to break the drought by any
means...but it will be welcomed rainfall nonetheless.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this afternoon and early evening. Southerly
winds will subside, but light breeze will continue overnight.
Expect another field of stratus with fog development tonight,
mainly across the interior. Clouds linger Tuesday as SHRA become
more common through the early afternoon. A focused region of
heavier showers will be possible into the late afternoon and
evening hours for southern NH terminals. This may result in
MVFR/IFR ceilings.
Long Term...There will be a period from Wed into Thu where
precip and marine influence will lead to lower CIGs. Aside from
local MVFR or lower in SHRA/RA...there may also be an area of
marine fog/stratus that develops Wed and moves southwestward
down the coast. Coastal terminals could see IFR or lower
conditions thru Wed night...especially from PWM south.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Wave heights will slowly increase 3 to 6 ft tonight
into Tuesday on the coastal waters. A slow moving front will
approach the waters Tuesday, with one or two disturbances
nearing by Tuesday evening. This will provide the chance for
showers as well as a wind shift late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
SCA continues mainly for waves, but gusts will be approaching 20
kt late Tuesday night.
Long Term...Any lingering SCA conditions will diminish Wed.
Swell from Gabrielle may linger into the second half of the work
week. Areas of fog may develop Wed and linger into Thu ahead of
frontal systems moving thru the region.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro
MARINE...Cornwell/Legro

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion