Box Springs, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

983
FXUS62 KFFC 031735 AAB
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Dry conditions will persist through Saturday amid seasonal
      temperatures and an easterly breeze.
- A surge of tropical moisture will bring rain chances to
      Georgia between Sunday afternoon and Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Have adjusted dewpoints down a couple degrees overall today as
the 12z sounding indicated a very dry layer of air between ~650 mb
and ~800 mb. Still, relative humidity area-wide will remain above
the threshold for a Fire Danger Statement (relative humidity of
25% or lower).
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Dry weather with largely seasonal temperatures will persist through
Saturday. Upper ridging remains in place today across the eastern US
while surface high pressure currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic
region will only shift marginally eastward offshore by Saturday. As
such, a weak CAD situation will remain in place through the short
term with a refreshing northeasterly breeze today gradually shifting
more easterly on Saturday. With the northeast breeze today,
dewpoints will remain relatively drier (mainly in the 50s), while
afternoon highs reach primarily the upper 70s to low 80s.
On Saturday, the upper ridge axis will shift farther eastward.
Meanwhile, moisture will begin to creep back northwestward into the
area with dewpoints returning to the 60s as a tropical wave in the
western Atlantic moves into the Florida peninsula. High clouds will
also be on the increase on Saturday, though PoPs will remain
relegated farther south and east of the area. Temperatures will only
nudge upward a degree or two on Saturday with fairly pleasant
conditions remaining, though the gradually increasing dewpoints will
begin to herald deeper moisture return by the latter half of the
weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Tropical Moisture Surge to Start Next Week:
An easterly wave will reach Florida on Saturday, then it will
track northwestwards into Georgia on Sunday. As the wave
approaches and upper level ridging weakens, a surge of tropical
moisture will move north. Guidance from the GEFS and EPS suggests
mean precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range by
Sunday night. This should lead to widespread cloud cover on Sunday
and Monday. The higher moisture concentration will be accompanied
by saturated sounding profiles that will limit instability and
thunderstorm chances Sunday night and Monday. Rain should still
occur though, with the greatest rainfall potential anticipated
between Sunday evening and Monday as the trough axis swings
through Georgia. This appears to be the kind of event where
rainfall totals are limited by a lack of instability, despite very
favorable precipitable water values. Guidance form the GEFS and
EPS continue to favor a very limited potential for rainfall
amounts over 1 inch. This looks especially true for northern and
western Georgia where the probabilities of over 1 inch of rainfall
by Monday evening remain below 20% in both ensembles. The odds of
an inch of rain are higher in east central Georgia (near 50%).
The tropical moisture should linger in the region on Tuesday and
Wednesday, with precipitable water values at or above 1.5 inches
both days. This should allow for some diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm activity both days. The portions of north and central
Georgia that get thunderstorms will have a decent opportunity for
total rain amounts over an inch by Wednesday night.
High temperature trends for the start of the week will remain
relatively flat. Ensemble guidance has consistently suggest
widespread highs in the upper 70s and low 80s, and nothing has
shifted with the latest model runs. Elevated surface dewpoints,
largely in the 60s, will combine with cloud cover to hinder
overnight radiational cooling. As a consequence overnight lows will
be 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages Sunday, Monday and
Tuesday. This translates to morning temperature readings in the
upper 60s.
The Second Half of the Workweek:
An upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes should push a
cold front towards Georgia Wednesday or Thursday. The fronts passage
may increase thunderstorm chances, then in its wake a drier airmass
should filter into the state. Guidance from the ensembles latches
onto to this drier airmass, and consequently favors dry weather in
the state Thursday and Friday. Widespread highs in the 70s are
probable behind the front, while falling dewpoints should lead to
more reasonable overnight lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Besides the potential for MVFR CIGs at MCN between ~14z and ~17z
tomorrow (Saturday), VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. Upper-level clouds will increase through the evening into
tomorrow, with SCT low-VFR clouds tomorrow afternoon. Winds will
remain E to NE through the period at 8-13 kts with gusts to ~20
kts. Winds will relax overnight to ~8 kts or lower.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.
Martin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          76  56  78  62 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         79  60  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     74  51  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    80  58  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        82  62  83  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     76  57  78  62 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           81  62  83  66 /   0   0  10   0
Rome            82  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  79  58  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         84  65  84  68 /   0   0  20   0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Martin

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion