Brandy, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

346
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
403 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will track along a stalled out front
along the mid-Atlantic coast today through Sunday. High pressure
then builds north of the region through much of next week.
Meanwhile, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to
approach the southeast coast early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rain/showers across central Virginia early this morning will
continue to spread NNE across the rest of the fcst area later
today as forcing and upper level divergence increase on the east
side of a cutoff low over the TN River Valley and on the NW side
of a weak area of low pressure tracking along a stalled out
front along the mid-Atlantic coast. The heaviest amounts are
expected from Charlottesville ENE through Fredericksburg and
over southern Maryland where totals of 1-2 inches are possible.
Given lack of instability, rain rates should be manageable,
especially given the moderate drought conditions present across
much of the area. Therefore, the rain should be mostly
beneficial for all. The rain will start exiting the area after
00Z Sun and should be out of the area by midnight tonight. Some
clearing will occur overnight, mainly east of the Blue Ridge,
while areas of low clouds and/or fog are likely to develop or
persist west of the Blue Ridge. Cooler today with highs in the
70-75 range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build north of the region Sunday through
early Monday keeping generally fair and dry weather, except for
some morning low clouds and/or fog.
Rain or showers associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
may start reaching central Virginia by daybreak Tuesday, but
recent model trends keep PTC9 further south and more offshore
lessening the risk of excessive rainfall across our area.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Next week`s forecast is a very challenging one, with various sources
of model guidance showing considerable spread. What is now Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine will likely reach its northernmost
position on Tuesday, before ultimately stalling out or drifting
back southward through Friday. NHC`s official forecast calls for
the storm to stall off the South Carolina coast Tuesday into
Wednesday. Depending on how far north this system ultimately
makes it, rain could move into the area for Tuesday into
Wednesday. It`s also plausible that the system could stay far
enough south that all the rain remains off to our south.
Probabilistically speaking, the further south one goes, the
greater the chance they have to receive heavy rainfall amounts
Tuesday into Wednesday.
A deep upper trough will track off the New England Coastline on
Wednesday, with high pressure building to our north at the surface
in its wake later Wednesday through Friday. This high should keep
the system suppressed to our south during the second half of
through much of Monday night as high pressu the week. As the
high builds to our north, a strong cold front will move through,
ushering the coldest airmass of the season into the region.
High will generally be in the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with
lows in the upper 50s and 60s Tuesday night. High temperatures
will likely only make it into the 60s on Thursday and Friday,
with overnight lows in the 40s to around 50.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR ccigs and vsby developing later today in rain or showers.
Precip begins to exit this evening and should be out of the area
by 06Z Sunday, but low clouds and/or fog will hang out through
daybreak Sunday. More rain chances arrive for KCHO early on Tue,
but flight restrictions appear unlikely at this time. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday.
Sub-VFR conditions appear possible on both Tuesday and Wednesday,
but forecast uncertainty during that time period remains high.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions are possible across the southern waters late
tonight into Sunday morning and possibly again late Mon
night/early Tue.
Small Craft Advisory conditions appear possible Tuesday into
Wednesday within east to southeasterly flow.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...LFR/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion