Bunkerville, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

220
FXUS65 KVEF 221806
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1106 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Low chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in far southern
  Mohave County through the morning and afternoon, however impacts
  should be minimal.
* Precipitation chances linger each day through the upcoming week
  due to anomalous moisture and periodic disturbances moving
  across the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Through the Weekend.
Through the morning, radar showed light returns streaming through
southern Mohave County in response to a weak southwesterly upper
level jet ahead of an upper level low off the Southern California
Coast. Little to no rain was reported with these showers so far In
general, expecting scattered showers to continue through the morning
and afternoon as weak forcing sits over as modestly moist
environment. The better forcing and highest moisture will remain
outside of the forecast area though, so overall impacts and chances
for rain are low. Probabilities for over 0.10 inch of total rainfall
through today are 20% or less. HRRR and HREF do show some lightning
flashes this afternoon with the precipitation this afternoon in
southern Mohave County, so isolated thunderstorms are also possible
but would be limited in impacts as instability will remain low. By
this evening, hires models show any showers that do develop shifting
south and ending and a dry night is expected.
Looking ahead, the aforementioned low off of the California Coast
will remain the primary feature of concern, though uncertainty
regarding its evolution somewhat muddles the forecast. Anomalous
moisture (roughly 100-150% of normal) will remain over the region
ahead of this low, with any subtle shortwaves embedded in the
southwesterly flow aloft warranting at least a slight chance mention
of precipitation across the area each day through the upcoming week.
Ensembles continue to differ on the timing and trajectory of this
low as it eventually moves inland toward the latter half of the work
week, though once it finally translates eastward, precipitable water
values are progged to ramp up closer to 150-200% of normal. However,
uncertainty regarding its evolution as well as uncertainty regarding
how much moisture will be sapped by the windward side of the Sierra
lends to a lower confidence forecast. Regardless, the continued
presence of moisture will keep rain chances in the forecast, as well
as serve to keep temperatures near and below normal through the
forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
winds will follow diurnal patterns through tonight, settling out
of the east to east-northeast this afternoon before shifting to
the southwest this evening. Mid to late morning Tuesday, a
northeasterly wind shift is expected, with winds increasing to
around 8-10KT, persisting through the end of the forecast period.
Intermittent gusts to around 15KT can be expected, though timing
remains uncertain at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail,
with SCT mid-level clouds gradually clearing out through the
evening.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds through tonight
will generally follow typical diurnal directional patterns, with
wind speeds around 8KT or less. Tuesday mid to late morning, winds
shift to the north and northeast across southern Nevada,
northwestern Arizona, and across the Colorado River Valley, with
wind speeds increasing to around 10-12KT, and stronger through
the Colorado River Valley due to topographic effects. Gusts there
could reach 20-25KT prior to the end of the forecast period. VFR
conditions will prevail, with FEW-SCT mid-level clouds expected to
clear out this evening.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Phillipson
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion