Burns Junction, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

672
FXUS65 KBOI 070235
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
835 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.DISCUSSION...A band of showers moved northeastward through our
CWA midday and cleared out most of the near-surface smoke.
Clearing skies and warming behind the band allowed convective
clouds to form in southeast OR and Owyhee Co/ID. Afternoon
thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain and small hail in
Harney County, and a severe thunderstorm this evening produced
large hail and heavy rain in Owyhee County /ID. At 8 PM MDT
most of the remaining showers and thunderstorms were in Owyhee
County and Malheur County and moving northeastward. Hi-res
models show all activity decreasing by 9 PM MDT and ending by
11 PM MDT. Only sprinkles are expected in the Treasure Valley
during that time. Current forecast is on track renewing showers
and thunderstorms Sunday near the northern and eastern edges of
our CWA. Breezy, warm, and dry weather is expected Monday ahead
of a Pacific upper low moving toward the coast. Showers will
spread eastward across our CWA Monday night through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in
southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon will end by 04Z
leaving scattered mid-level clouds over the area. SFC winds
variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 5-15 kt. VFR
with light surface winds will continue on Sunday.
KBOI...A few showers in the vicinity of KBOI will dissipate by
04Z. Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 kt through
Sunday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...Most of the smoke
is being pushed out by the band of showers moving northeast
through the area, along a shortwave. Showers within the band are
leaving just below 0.1" of rain, but clear skies behind the band
will help destabilize the surface supporting convection this
afternoon and evening. Areas that have been clear for a few
hours in SE Oregon have already shown thunderstorm development,
namely near Burns, Oregon. Cumulus buildups over the Owyhees
and Malheur county indicate the instability is already building
in across much of SE Oregon and far SW portions of Idaho. Storms
that form this afternoon could produce outflows up to 45 mph,
locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and lightning. Even areas
far away from storms could experience brief gusts up to 25 mph
from outflows. Precipitable water is still near 1.0 inch, even
behind the shower band, and HRRR QPF shows storms could produce
0.30 to 0.50 inch of rain in a small time frame.
Precipitation will taper off by midnight tonight, and enough
instability and moisture will remain tomorrow afternoon for
another shot of storms and showers across far northern and
eastern portions of our area. Storm characteristics tomorrow
will be almost identical to today, likely developing around 2 PM
MDT through 9 PM MDT. Most of the activity will be out of our
area as the shortwave moves northeastward. Winds behind the wave
will support gusts up to 25 mph along the NV border in Oregon
and Idaho, with much drier conditions especially in the
afternoon. A low-pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast
will begin moving inland on Monday. As the core of the low
pressure moves in, clouds will build and precipitation chances
begin to rise going into the long term.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday... Unsettled weather will
be the story throughout the majority of the long term period.
Models are in good agreement on the Pacific trough making its
way inland come Tuesday. This upper-level trough will linger
over our area for the majority of the week, resulting in daily
chances of precipitation (20-60%) and afternoon thunderstorms
(10-25%) Tuesday through Friday. In both cases, the highest
chances will be found across higher terrain. Guidance indicates
a low amplitude ridge building in on Saturday as the trough
begins to move east out of our area. As a result, precipitation
will begin to taper off through Saturday. However, precipitation
chances remain non-zero on Saturday, with a 10-20% chance
across much of the area (20-30% in the Central Idaho Mountains).
Temperatures will drop to 5-10 degrees below normal following a
cold frontal passage early Tuesday, before hovering within that
range through Friday. Temperatures will warm to near normal
come Saturday as the low amplitude ridge builds in.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JB
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....NF

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion