Calico Basin, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

989
FXUS65 KVEF 091146
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
446 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Fall-like system brings breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and dry
  conditions to the Desert Southwest this week.
* Dense smoke and poor air quality will return for the Owens
  Valley and Esmeralda County each night through midweek as a
  result of the Garnet Fire.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Monday.
Morning water vapor satellite imagery shows a large low pressure
system centered over the northern CA and southern OR coasts. This
feature will gradually continue inland over the next several days,
bringing gusty southwest winds of 20-40 mph to our area.
Precipitation chances (10-30%) will be limited to the Sierra and our
southern Great Basin zones from Wednesday - Friday. Otherwise, the
rest of the CWA is expected to remain dry. The cooling trend
persists through Thursday with temperatures falling to values
typically seen in late September and early October, giving us our
first taste of Fall. By late week and the weekend, the low pushes
to our east, allowing winds to weaken and temperatures to rebound
slightly.
With the aforementioned low`s slow progression, southwesterly flow
will continue to advect wildfire smoke over the Sierra and into our
northwestern zones. Webcams show smoke settling into the Owens
Valley as well as valleys in Esmeralda County. Folks in these areas
can expect poor visibility and air quality to last through at least
the morning hours, and return again each evening through Thursday.
Once the low/trough axis passes the Sierra on Friday, the flow
pattern change should provide some relief from the smoke. The
magnitude of smoke will be largely dependent on afternoon behavior
of the Garnet Fire.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast
Package...Southwesterly winds will continue through the forecast
period. Sustained speeds of 12-15KT will develop by mid morning,
with at least intermittent gusts to 20-25KT through early evening.
Around sunset, a brief lull in winds is expected before gusts
redevelop and persist for several hours overnight. VFR conditions
with passing high clouds will prevail, with temperatures remaining
under 100 degrees.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds will settle out
of the southwest across most of the region by later this
morning. Gusts to 20-25KT will be common this afternoon through
early evening, with slightly stronger westerly winds across the
western Mojave Desert. Wildfire smoke remains a concern across
portions of Inyo County and the southwestern Great Basin, with
MVFR/IFR conditions due to low-level smoke expected in the Owens
Valley through early afternoon, with improvement then expected as
winds shift to the southeast and become gusty. This improvement
will last until early evening, with a return to northerly winds
allowing for another round of smoke to settle into the Owens
Valley. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion