597 FXUS64 KTSA 060541 AFDTSAArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Scattered showers and storms will persist across the area through tonight, eventually becoming confined to the south and east into Saturday.
- Clearing and drying conditions from the north to south Saturday, with temperatures well below normal this weekend.
- Warmer and dry conditions are favored next week, with only a slight chance of rain in parts of NE OK on Tuesday.
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.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Showers will linger over the area, while a few thunderstorms will likely continue across portions of southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas through the morning hours along the frontal boundary that moved through the region yesterday. A few storms could be strong with some gusty winds for the next couple of hours before the threat for any stronger storms shifts south of the Red River. Surface high pressure will settle over the local region by this afternoon, with clearing skies expected from the north to south from the afternoon through the evening hours. Temperatures will remain relatively cool for early September, with highs progged to stay in the 70s to near 80 in some locations this afternoon. It will be a cool night as well underneath the surface ridge. Some parts of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas could dip into the 40s for overnight lows while most locations will experience 50s with some low 60s along the Red River.
Bowlan
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.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Warming and drying conditions are in store through the better part of next week. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Sunday under clearing skies and a return to southerly surface flow. Highs should creep back up into the low to mid 80s across the area through Tuesday. A weak wave could bring some more showers to parts of northeast Oklahoma during the day Tuesday, with low chances (10-20%) maintained in the forecast, but most places look to remain dry. By mid week and into the weekend, mid to upper level ridging will build back over the Plains and temperatures will return to near or above their seasonal average in the upper 80s to low 90s, with negligible rain chances through the rest of the forecast period.
Bowlan
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A period of MVFR ceilings may occur Saturday morning at KMLC and KFSM, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few showers will remain possible into early Saturday morning at the southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites, followed by clearing skies Saturday afternoon and evening.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 79 58 85 60 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 77 59 82 58 / 20 0 10 0 BVO 76 51 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 78 52 82 54 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 77 52 81 54 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 78 57 81 58 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 77 52 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 F10 76 55 80 55 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 74 62 80 58 / 40 10 10 0
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.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. &&
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SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...05
NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion