Captiva, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

503
FXUS62 KTBW 170000
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move
east and northeast across inland west central Florida this
evening, but these should wind down over the next few hours with
mainly just some high clouds spreading across the region
overnight. The exception could be along the southwest coast where
models are indicating that some convection will develop well
offshore overnight into Wednesday morning with some light
rain/light showers possibly spreading into this area. Otherwise,
more scattered to numerous convection is expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening as some deeper moisture overspreads much of
the area, with the exception being across the northern Nature
Coast. Forecast has already been tweaked to adjust rain chances
for early tonight, otherwise remainder of forecast looks on track.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Scattered convection will wind down by midnight with VFR
conditions expected to prevail overnight into Wednesday morning.
More convection is forecast to develop well off the southwest
coast later tonight and Wednesday morning with clouds and some
light rain/light showers possibly spreading into PGD, FMY, and
RSW during this time. Otherwise, more scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region Wednesday
afternoon and evening which could cause some MVFR/local IFR
conditions. Winds will become easterly at 4 to 7 knots tonight
then east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots Wednesday morning into
afternoon, except gusty erratic winds possible near any
convection.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Looking at some very similiar conditions to yesterday with dry air
to the north and slightly more moisture down south. Shower activity
again today should stay south of I-4 with the best chance in SW
Florida.
We will see a bump up in storm chances tomorrow an an upper level
trough pushes through the state. As it goes through we see PW bump
back up to near 2 inches. This will result in a more typical summer
time pattern with scattered showers and storms across the whole
CWA. The trough will move away for Thursday but PW will remain
around 2 inches for one more day allowing for scattered showers
and storms once again.
Drier air will filter back in for Friday and Saturday keeping most
of the area dry except for SW Florida. Moisture looks to slowly
return by Sunday and next Monday bringing scattered showers and
storms back into the forecast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Winds will remain out of the east and northeast around 5
to 10 knots through Thursday. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots
by Friday and Saturday. Best storm chances will be tomorrow as an
upper level trough pushes through the area. For the rest of the week
you can expect isolated showers mainly south of Tampa Bay.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
An upper level trough will bring scattered showers and
storms to the area tomorrow. For the rest of the week we will remain
dry north of I-4 with scattered storms expected south of I-4.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  74  90 /   0  50  20  40
FMY  74  87  73  87 /  20  70  50  80
GIF  73  89  73  89 /  40  60  20  50
SRQ  73  88  72  88 /  10  60  40  50
BKV  69  89  69  90 /  20  40  20  30
SPG  77  88  74  87 /  10  60  30  40
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion