Carlock, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

473
FXUS63 KFSD 241114
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
614 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Similar to the last few nights, areas of developing fog will
  persist mainly north of I-90 through mid-morning.
- A persistent seasonally warm pattern will be in place through
  early next week with very small chances for precipitation.
- Additional chances for patchy fog will be possible by Thursday
  morning mainly across the James River Valley and portions of
  northwestern IA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
TODAY & TONIGHT: The seasonally warm conditions continue! Taking a
look across the area, a quiet night continue as temperatures
continue their gradual descent into the low to mid 50s to start the
morning. With dew points expected to be around the same with lighter
surface winds, could see the development of some patchy fog mainly
north of I-90. While some locally dense patches will be possible
mainly in our River Valleys, should see most of the fog gradually
erode just after daybreak as mixing resumes. From here, could see a
few diurnally driven sprinkles develop along and east of I-29 as
some weak lift rotates off the backside of a positively tilted
trough centered over the Great Lakes region. Nonetheless,
accumulations will be limited (if any). Otherwise, should see
temperatures peak in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s during the day
with a gradual descent into the low to mid 50s overnight. Lastly,
lighter winds and lingering low-level moisture could lead to
additional areas of fog developing overnight specifically along the
James River Valley and portions of northwestern IA.
THURSDAY ONWARDS: Looking into the latter parts of the week, mid-
level ridging moves in to reset our pattern aloft returning us to
quasi-zonal flow aloft. Increasing subsidence with the predominantly
ridging pattern aloft should help keep us mostly dry moving forward.
Ensemble guidance seems to agree with this sentiment as both the
GEFS and Euro only have 20-30 percent probabilities of 0.10" of an
inch of QPF or greater through about October 1st. Nonetheless, cold
fronts will pass through the area on Friday and again on Tuesday
with the better "chances" for accumulating precipitation between
Tuesday and Wednesday. Lastly, we`ll likely continue to see
temperatures hover in the 70s and 80s into early parts of
October.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Mostly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR/IFR vsbys will be
possible this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, a
few pockets of MVFR to IFR fog have developed north of I-90.
While these conditions will likely persist through daybreak,
should vsbys gradually improve by mid-morning (9am-10am).
Otherwise, could additional pockets of fog develop tonight
mainly across the James River Valley and portions of northwestern
IA. Lastly, light and variable winds will continue for the
majority of the day to end the TAF period.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05

NWS FSD Office Area Forecast Discussion