Carpinteria, California Weather Forecast Discussion

020
FXUS66 KLOX 071732
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1032 AM PDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...07/228 AM.
Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue today
with most areas a few degrees warmer than yesterday. A
significant cooling trend will begin Monday resulting in much
cooler than normal temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday as a
low pressure system approaches California.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...07/909 AM.
***UPDATE***
No changes are needed for the morning forecast update. Barely any
clouds formed overnight, resulting in a sunny Sunday morning for
the majority of the area, save for the early risers across Western
Santa Barbara County who woke up to some clouds, and perhaps some
light drizzle. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer
than yesterday - the last of the warming before we see
temps drop up to 10 degrees over Monday and Tuesday.
As the weather is fairly benign this week, will be looking at
adding some morning drizzle to the coastal side of the mountains
this week, but really don`t anticipate the afternoon forecast
package being much different from this morning`s.
***From Previous Discussion***
A little bump in heights today along with weak offshore trends to
the east and north will help warm temperatures 1-3 degrees
overall, but with isolated areas as much as 6 degrees above
Saturday`s highs. The western San Fernando Valley will be flirting
with triple digits today but most other valleys will be in the low
to mid 90s. The marine layer has responded in kind with much less
stratus coverage than yesterday.
As has been advertised for several days now, a significant cooling
trend will begin Monday as a low pressure system approaches the
northern California coast. Most areas will experience 2-5 degrees
of cooling Monday, then another 3-6 degrees of cooling Tuesday
resulting in highs 5-10 degrees below normal in all areas except
the immediate coast where highs will will just slightly below
normal. The marine layer will undergo rapid deepening during this
time, likely pushing into the valleys by Tuesday morning if not
before. With the cooling aloft causing ascending air in the
boundary layer there is a possibility of some morning drizzle
Tuesday across the coast and valleys, mainly south of Pt
Conception, though there is a better chance of this Wednesday and
Thursday. Depending on how quickly the marine layer deepens it`s
also possible some coastal areas will remain cloudy all day.
As the trough moves onshore later Monday, increasing northerly
flow will generate some gusty Sundowner winds across southwest
Santa Barbara County Monday evening with gusts to 45 mph. And with
increasing onshore flow to the east there will be some gusty
southwest winds across the Antelope Valley, particularly Tuesday.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...07/333 AM.
The upper low will basically take up camp along the West coast all
week, maintaining much below normal temperatures, especially
inland where highs will be as much as 10-15 degrees below normal
Wednesday through at least Friday. 500mb heights will drop below
580dam, the lowest it has been since June. The marine layer will
likely be at least 3000 feet deep with very slow clearing,
especially near the coast. There will be drizzle chances each
night and morning through Friday, especially LA/Ventura Counties.
Most of the ensemble solutions support a slow warming trend next
week but temperatures will remain at least 3-6 degrees below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1731Z.
At 1702Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2400 feet with a temperature of 26 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).
High confidence in VFR TAFs for San Fernando Valley airfields.
-> (KVNY & KBUR).
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. LIFR to IFR conditions for
sites with forecasted CIGs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be
off by 2 hours.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and departure of
CIGs may be off by 2 hours, and flight categories could be off by
one cat when CIGs are present. Heights likely in range 003-007.
No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF.
&&
.MARINE...07/841 AM.
Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind gusts are
possible (30% chance) across the waters north of Point Conception
during the afternoon & evening hours through the weekend.
Widespread SCA level winds are expected during the afternoon &
evening hours south of Point Conception through the weekend. Wind
gusts may drop below SCA levels from Point Conception to buoy
46069 Sunday morning.
This coming week, high confidence in SCA level winds during the
afternoon & evening hours south of Point Conception, with a 20-30%
chance of GALE force wind gusts Monday through Wednesday.
Marginal SCA level wind gusts will be possible north of Point
Conception through Wednesday, with increasing chances through the
end of the work week. Seas are likely to remain at or below 8 feet
through Friday.
Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate chance
of SCA level wind gusts for western/southern portions of the
Santa Barbara Channel, near Point Dume, & across the San Pedro
Channel during the afternoon & evening hours through Sunday.
Winds are expected to become stronger and more widespread across
the inner waters, potentially impacting the eastern portion of the
SBA Channel and the Santa Monica Bay through at least Wednesday.
Seas may exceed 5 feet across western/southern portions of the
SBA Channel on Monday & Tuesday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Lund
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...MW/Ciliberti/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion