Carpio, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

486
FXUS63 KBIS 261127
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
627 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue through the middle of next
  week, with mostly dry conditions expected through this
  weekend. Low chances of rain return by the middle of next
  week.
- Breezy and dry conditions today will lead to near critical
  fire weather conditions over parts of far southwestern North
  Dakota.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A little patchy fog has developed just east of Hettinger up
towards Regent in the far southwest. Added a few hours of patchy
fog to account for this and the potential expansion further
northward. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Surface low pressure over south central Canada will propagate
from southwest to northeast today. Associated warm frontal
boundary will pass through the forecast area this morning, along
with a trailing cold frontal boundary not far behind. This will
produce breezy conditions, especially in western ND this
afternoon. A few models simulate isolated showers mainly over
northern ND. However, based on how dry forecast soundings appear,
and the isolated nature of these simulated returns, believe
most anything that develops will either be virga or a few
sprinkles, therefore left out mentionable PoPs for now. That
said, it`s not impossible that a few more organized returns
could develop and produce a few legitimate showers.
High temperatures today will remain above average (mid 70s to
low 80s), especially in southern and north central parts of the
state. With minimum relative humidity values dropping down to
around 20 to 25 percent, breezy conditions, and fuels beginning
to cure; a few hours of near-critical fire weather conditions
are expected in the far southwest this afternoon. These
conditions should be limited in duration due to temperatures in
the southwest starting to cool by the mid-afternoon, and winds
rapidly diminishing as the sun sets. Should smoke become thick
enough, which is very uncertain, it too could help limit the
duration a skosh by hindering temperatures a degree or two.
For Saturday, high pressure is progged to scoot across South
Dakota. The associated tightening of the pressure gradient may
produce breezy weeds once again in western and northern parts of
the state. However, they should be weaker overall than this
afternoon. Highs Saturday will be a bit cooler, albeit still
slightly above average, and mostly in the 70s.
Beyond Saturday, expect a ridging pattern to prevail through the
middle of next week, with the ridge amplifying over the Great
Lakes Region Tuesday or Wednesday. This will maintain
southerly to southwesterly flow over the Northern Plains
through mid-week resulting in the continuation of mostly dry
conditions and well above average temperatures. Or rather, highs
mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s through Wednesday. Despite
the expectation of mostly dry conditions prevailing, embedded
shortwaves along the western ridge could bring a few showers to
the forecast area by the middle of the week.
One final note as alluded to while speaking of fire weather, is
that Smoke models suggest low concentrations of near-surface
smoke may pass through the state today with the aforementioned
cold frontal boundary. Based on the progged low smoke
concentrations; left out mentions for now. However, the
HRRRSmoke is more bullish than RAP smoke and especially targets
the far southwest. So wouldn`t be completely surprised if there
isn`t some noticeable smoke near the surface when all is said
and done.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR ceilings and visibility will generally prevail, though a
little patchy fog has developed in the far southwest early this
morning. The terminal most likely impacted would be KDIK,
although with low confidence, only added VCFG for a few hours
this morning to account for that possibility. Any fog will
dissipate by mid-morning. Breezy winds are also expected
throughout much of the period. Initially winds will maintain a
southerly component ahead of a warm frontal boundary. After
which, a trailing cold frontal boundary will cause a rapid
transition to a westerly and finally a northwesterly direction.
A few hours of LLWS is possible in the northwest and north
central early this morning, including at the terminals of KXWA
and KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion