Cashion, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

709
FXUS64 KOUN 291106
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
606 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions to persist
   through the coming week.
-  Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and
   early Sunday across northern Oklahoma.
- Low chance for a pattern change early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed a mid and upper
low spinning near the Four Corners region, with showers and
thunderstorms developing over New Mexico and far northeastern
parts of Mexico. The low is expected become an open wave today
with a shortwave trough lifting into West Texas. The main result
for today will be weak height falls and afternoon temperatures
several degree cooler (around 5+ degrees), especially across the
western third of Oklahoma and western north Texas. The wind will
continue to be rather light out of the southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Mid and high clouds will continue to thicken tonight, as the
aforementioned shortwave trough moves across at least the western
half of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Model soundings indicated a
fairly deep saturated layer in the mid and upper levels with a
rather dry sub-cloud region. This evening and overnight, there
will likely be light radar echos lifting northeast across western
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Most of this will be associated with
virga, but some sprinkles or very light rain showers may occur.
Will add a mention of sprinkles for the overnight period.
The trough axis will be slow to move eastward Tuesday into
Tuesday night with a downstream high to our east.  Clouds should
slowly decrease from west to east Tuesday into Tuesday evening.  The
flow to our west and north will be broadly cyclonic with perhaps a
weak disturbance skirting parts of northern Oklahoma Tuesday night
into early Wednesday.  With a moderate low-level jet developing
across the High Plains Tuesday evening, there could be some
potential for a light shower or two.  For now the forecast will
remain dry during this period.
Wednesday and especially Wednesday night, height rises are expected
as a ridge over northern Mexico builds northward.  This will bring
back warmer afternoon high temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The mid and upper ridge will be the primary weather feature Thursday
into most of Friday.  Therefore, afternoon highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s each day with dry conditions.  By late
Friday, a southerly wind may begin to increase some as a trough
begins to move across the Inter-Mountain West. Late Saturday into
Sunday this trough will move across central parts of the country,
but may deamplify as it does. For now will add a low chance (20
percent) of showers and thunderstorms across the northern third of
Oklahoma for mainly Saturday night and early Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions through the period at all sites with light
southeasterly winds and increasing high clouds from the west.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  64  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         85  63  87  61 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  84  64  86  61 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           83  60  84  60 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     85  63  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         86  65  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion