Cedar Gap, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

160
FXUS63 KSGF 111053
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
553 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions into next week.
  Some record highs may be approached. Drought conditions
  worsening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The warming trend continues today as the upper trough continues
to drift slowly east into the area. Look for highs in the low
to mid 90s today (may approach records at SGF and UNO) with
nearly calm winds and mostly sunny skies.
For tonight, lows in the 60s are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The long term pattern is really simple. The upper ridge to the
west will continue to push east and then remain over the area
into the middle of next week. This means persistent heat and
mostly dry conditions. Look for forecast temperatures to be
within a few degrees of record highs each day through the long
term period. See the climate section for a list of sites that
are forecast to be within 5 degrees of record highs.
Ensemble data shows little spread in temperatures, making for
good confidence in the temperature forecast into next week.
Previously, about 25% of ensembles showed a mid-level low or
trough extending from the Great Lakes into our area, but that
has decreased to around 12% in latest runs. Thus, confidence in
the warm and dry pattern persisting has increased.
Impacts of the heat will be mitigated by limited moisture,
keeping heat index values near the actual temperatures, along
with relatively cool overnight lows in the 60s. Still, sensitive
and/or exposed user groups will need to plan accordingly.
Looking ahead toward the day 8-14 (Sep 18-24) time frame, CPC
favors above normal temperatures (58% above normal, 33% near
normal probabilities) which is in line with ensemble data (GEFS,
ENS, and GEPS) all showing 7 day temperature anomalies around
+6 F. As far as precipitation goes, the CPC outlook is
essentially equal chances for above normal (36%), near normal
(33%), and below normal (31%). Ensemble data favors slightly
negative precipitation anomalies.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 11:
KSGF: 96/2000
KUNO: 96/1953
September 12:
KSGF: 97/1939
KJLN: 97/1956
KVIH: 98/1897
KUNO: 96/1980
September 13:
KSGF: 99/2011
KVIH: 96/1956
KUNO: 96/1980
September 14:
KUNO: 99/1954
September 15:
KSGF: 98/1893
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 98/1954
September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KVIH: 96/1954
KUNO: 99/1980
September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
KJLN: 95/1953
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Titus

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion