Ceres, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

712
FXUS61 KRNK 200803
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
403 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gives way to a backdoor front today. Though
moisture is limited, cannot rule out a few isolated showers or
storms this afternoon mainly in the north. The backdoor front
retreats north Sunday as a warm front with high pressure
overhead. A moisture axis allows for a chance of showers and
storms Monday and Tuesday with the greatest chance in the
mountains. Low pressure looks to slowly move east from the
Midwest into the Ohio Valley by midweek and allow for a more
widespread chance of showers and storms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1) A few showers/storms possible mainly this afternoon in the
north.
A weak backdoor front looks to push southward into the area
later today. This with an area of some enhanced moisture could
trigger some isolated convection mainly in the north so am
advertising chance pops. CAMs are in decent consensus with
fairly limited coverage overall. Some sfc destabilization could
allow for general thunderstorm development with any triggering.
Otherwise, there looks to be a push of some low level moisture
in from the NE tonight into Sunday morning so a stratocu deck
could set in.
Max temps today should be a few degrees lower than yesterday,
though still above climo norms with generally mid 80s in the
Piedmont and upper 70s to low 80s in the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...As of 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...
Key Messages:
1) Quiet Sunday to close out the weekend
2) Rain over the mountains begins the workweek
By Sunday, a backdoor front will have settled along the west side of
the Blue Ridge, forming around the mountains as a stationary front.
The boundary will deteriorate in response to widespread high
pressure over the east coast, removing any additional isentropic
support for precipitation the stationary front may have supplied.
Rain is the least likely to occur on Sunday, while temperatures are
the coolest as the front dissolves. Highs will struggle to reach 80
in the Piedmont, and range from the upper 60s to mid 70s elsewhere.
For Monday, the first in a series of shortwaves will transit broad
upper troughing, bringing weak, largely terrain driven rain showers
to the western half of the CWA. This will continue on Tuesday as
well.
Meanwhile, one of these waves further upstream will evolve into a
cutoff low in the plains, with another separate low also forming in
southern Canada. The deepening troughing due to these lows will
enhance rain chances later on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...As of 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
Key Messages:
1) Interesting system over the plains will eventually move east
bringing widespread rain late in the week
The set of upper lows mentioned in the previous portion of the
forecast discussion will circle each other in an example of the
Fujiwhara effect. This will hold the larger area of low pressure in
and around the southern plains and Midwest for a couple of days. As
the lows fuse together, the effect of the stronger combined low will
encourage frontogenesis further east in the OH Valley. The timeline
for this to occur is unclear, though it seems likely this front
would impact southwest VA sometime Thursday or Friday, potentially
bringing the most widespread measurable rain to the region since
quite some time. One wouldn`t venture so far as to use the term
"drought breaker", especially this far out in the forecast, but
there is good confidence in a beneficial rain for areas that have
seen little rain this September.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Exception will
be possible LIFR fog at LWB this morning. Could get some alto
clouds or cu field later today at the sites and chance of
precip mainly in the north so have VCSH for LWB. Cannot rule out
isolated TSRA there. Winds will initially be light and
variable, then NE to SE under 7 kts today into tonight. Chance
for some lowering cigs tonight.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
Some sub-VFR cigs possible for Sunday morning, otherwise should
maintain VFR into early next week, aside from any late night
fog at mainly LWB. Low pressure system may bring us better
chances for showers by the middle of next week with potential
sub-VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP/AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AB/RCS

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion