Champion, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS63 KMQT 051947
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
347 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gale warnings continue this evening for Lake Superior, winds
should come down below gale later this evening.
- A cool airmass will remain over the Upper Great Lakes through the
weekend, with some moderation expected early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
This afternoon satellite and model analysis showed the clipper low
that exited the area this morning now over eastern Ontario
approaching James Bay. Overnight into early this morning up to and
over an inch of rain fell over parts of the western and the central
U.P. A subtle shortwave most noticeable in the 500mb vorticity was
moving south out of Ontario over western Lake Superior generating
scattered showers, this was being enhanced by lake induced
instability as relatively cold air pushed across the lake. A
reinforcing cold front moved across the area as the system passed
bringing breezy conditions and holding temperatures down in the 40s
and 50s. It was breezy, especially over the Keweenaw where winds
were gusting to around 40 mph.
Tonight through Saturday we will continued to see upper level
troughing extending from Canada down through the Great Lakes. Lake
effect rain showers are expected to diminish in the west late tonight
as drier air works into the area but will continue in the eastern
U.P, mainly east of Munising, until Saturday mid-morning as the
drier air works its way east. Expect many areas in the U.P to start
out with sunny skies (outside of the lake effect showers in the
east). Daytime heating, while still only seeing highs in the 50s,
will result in weak instability. This combined with a subtle
shortwave could trigger a few showers during the afternoon. Added a
slight chance for showers to most of the U.P during the afternoon.
Westerly winds could still be gusting to 20 mph in the morning but
will settle down as the day progresses. Clouds will increase
Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Showers will be possible by late evening, especially in the
Keweenaw, central and east closer to Lake Superior.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Yet another cold front is expected to push through the area early
Sunday morning bringing breezy northwesterly winds back into the U.P
along with the chance for showers. Showers will accompany the front
as it passes through early Sunday, additional lake effect showers
will be possible through Sunday morning, especially east of
Marquette. As the day progresses winds will once again shift back to
the west and weaken during the afternoon. The frost threat continues
to trend down for Sunday night. Kept the mention of frost minimal in
the grids as there is some indication that high clouds and winds
could keep temperatures warm enough to mitigate the frost threat.
Thereafter the upper level trough will finally start to shift east
into far eastern Canada. A ridge over the western U.S will also
start to break down late this weekend as an upper low approaches the
Pacific NW. By midweek troughing will extend down the western U.S
with a ridge building from the plains north through central Canada.
This will keep the U.P under a northwest to westerly upper level
flow through the week, helping to bring shortwave energy south into
the Upper Great Lakes and resulting in precipitation chances at
times though the week. Temperatures will moderate some, well into
the 60s for early next week but additional cold fronts will set
temperatures back into the 50s to low 60s for mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Scattered lake effect rain showers persist across the UP this
afternoon within a chilly NW flow regime, producing a mix of
VFR and MVFR conditions along with 25-30 kt wind gusts at area
terminals. Expect showers to taper off and winds to gradually
diminish 02-08z tonight as an embedded mid level disturbance
rotating around the northern Ontario low departs to the east,
yielding improving VFR cigs. VFR then prevails through the
remainder of the TAF period, with winds continuing to gust to
around 25 kt at KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A surface low will continue to pull away from the area today, lifting
to near James Bay by Saturday. A tight pressure gradient will remain
over the lake through this evening with cold air advection bringing
instability and mixing strong winds down to the surface. Expecting
northwest to west gales over all of the lake through late this
evening with gusts to 40 kts expected for the waters adjacent to the
west side of the Keweenaw. Wind will finally start to come down late
tonight with gust to around 25 kts by Saturday morning. Winds will
mainly be west to northwest around 20 kts but could gust to 25 kts
near the Keweenaw. Winds shift north-northwest early Sunday morning
as another cold front sweeps across the lake from the north. Wind
come back down to near 20 kts for Sunday night and Monday. On Monday
night into Tuesday southerly winds will develop. Ensemble guidance
shows about a 30% chance for gales with the southerly flow
developing, especially over the eastern half of the lake.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005-006.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...BW/CB
MARINE...NL

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion