Charlevoix, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

731
FXUS63 KAPX 191756
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
156 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated shower or storm chance along portions of the northwest
lower lakeshore this afternoon.
- Much more appreciable rain chances begin to build late tonight,
overspreading the region throughout the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level ridging squarely overhead
this afternoon with attendant ~1026mb surface high pressure centered
to our north sagging into the northern Great Lakes. Meanwhile,
notable troughing exists from the Canadian Prairies southeastward
through the Plains into the TN Valley. Associated relatively weak
and disorganized surface reflection over the Dakotas today will
remain generally stationary through tonight with a slow moving warm
front beginning to approach from the west. This system will provide
the impetus for increasing shower/storm chances through the weekend.
Forecast Details: Morning stratus has once again been stubborn to
burn off today, but some improvement noted over the last couple of
hours with thickest blanket of clouds remaining over parts of
northeast lower. Expect improvement to continue through the
remainder of the daylight hours with just about everywhere getting
into at least some peeks of sun. Otherwise, prevailing east flow
with Lake Michigan lake breeze development, despite decreasing
moisture, may result in a rogue shower through sunset -- primarily
near and west of US-131 and Grand Traverse Bay.
For the night ahead, a gradual uptick in cloud cover is anticipated
from southwest to northeast. While most areas are expected to remain
dry, generally sub 30-40% PoPs build after midnight, primarily west
of US-131 where latest trends continue to hint at an increasing LLJ
driven plume of instability ahead of the approaching warm front,
perhaps sufficient to produce some convection heading into the
pre- dawn hours Saturday. Low temps tonight expected to vary
from the upper 40s to upper 50s, coolest in the eastern U.P. and
northeast lower.&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Pattern Forecast: Upstream troughing continues to slowly march
eastward this weekend with lowering heights aloft by midday
Saturday. Some semblance of this troughing lingers overhead through
at least early next week. At the surface, aforementioned weak/
disorganized slow-moving area of low pressure continues to meander
toward the Great Lakes this weekend. Associated warm front knocking
on our western doorstep by early Sunday morning, shifting north into
Ontario by Sunday night. System`s cold front likely to pass through
the forecast area Monday. Beyond Monday, the envelope of solutions
widens pretty considerably, thus low confidence exists through the
remainder of the forecast period. That said, longer range ensemble
trends favor lingering moisture/forcing sufficient enough to keep at
least low chances for showers in the forecast.
Forecast Details: Increasing moisture anticipated Saturday with a
thickening/lowering cloud deck expected from southwest to northeast.
Primary shower/storm chance during the day Saturday should be
focused west of I-75 and to a farther extent, west of U-131. These
chances gradually spread into eastern areas later Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night.
Warm front clears the area Saturday night with a warmer and more
humid airmass being drawn into northern MI for Sunday. Warmest temps
in the upper 70s favored east of I-75 with dew points area-wide
creeping into the low-mid 60s by Sunday afternoon. PWs progged
potentially as high as 1.5-1.75" -- a value that if it verifies would
be +2 SD above the mid-late September mean. Given ample forcing
aloft, would expect shower/storm coverage to increase during the day
Sunday. While there`s not a glaring severe weather threat, MLCAPE
valued progged >500 J/kg and deep layer bulk shear of 25-30 kts may
yield a couple of stronger storms.
Shower/storm chances continue Sunday night into Monday as the system
passes through the region. Cold front should pass west to east
sometime Monday with simple pattern recognition suggesting the most
numerous showers/storms favored over northeast lower given what`s
expected to be more favorable frontal timing.
Heading toward the middle of next week, confidence is pretty low,
but sufficient moisture and potential for additional wave(s) aloft
will continue low PoPs at times. A touch cooler and less humidity
Tuesday-Thursday, but likely still a few degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
MVFR clouds and CIGs are expected to lift through the
afternoon/ evening hours with VFR conditions returning. Winds
easterly at about 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts in the teens.
Cloud cover will increase southwest to northeast tonight. While
most areas are expected to remain dry, generally sub 30-40% PoPs
build after midnight, primarily for MBL and TVC. These chances
gradually spread across eastern terminals late Saturday/
Saturday night. Easterly flow will become a bit gusty tonight
into Saturday with occasional gusts 20-25 knots.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through late
     Saturday night for MIZ017-018-088-096-097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Sunday
     for LMZ341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday
     for LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...NSC

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion