Cheviot, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

788
FXUS61 KALY 071741
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
141 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering showers come to an end by this evening, with dry and
tranquil weather then expected through the remainder of the upcoming
work week. Temperatures will be below normal tonight through Tuesday
night, then moderate to near normal for Wednesday and Thursday. A
cold frontal passage Thursday or Thursday night will then bring a
return to the below-normal temperatures through at least the first
half of next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:
- Patchy frost possible Monday night in the Adirondacks.
- Below normal temperatures and tranquil weather expected through
  much of the next 7 days.
Discussion:
As of 1:40 PM EDT...Yesterday`s cold frontal boundary remains
located to our east near the New England coastline, with a wave
of low pressure along that frontal boundary departing to the
northeast. This wave has brought showers to our southeastern
areas this morning, but these showers should taper off over the
next few hours. We are seeing some additional lake effect
showers across portions of the ADKs as well, but these showers
too should diminish as we head towards sunset. Temperatures are
warmest across the Hudson Valley, with areas here in the mid 60s
to low 70s. A secondary cold front is currently located near
the Hudson Valley and tracking eastwards, with dew points
dropping behind this front. Afternoon highs range from the low
60s in the high terrain to low 70s for valley areas with some
more breaks of clearing as we head towards the evening.
Tonight, a 1024 mb surface high currently located over Iowa will
expand eastwards, ridging into our western zones by the second half
of tonight. This will help promote subsidence and further clearing,
with any showers ending this evening. With a cooler airmass
moving in, temperatures will be cooler than the last few nights.
Some upper 30s will be possible in the high terrain, with 40s
for most of the rest of the region. Patchy fog will be possible
tonight as well in the typical river valleys and near wetlands.
Monday through Wednesday night...High pressure will sit overhead
through this time period, with continued tranquil weather. Highs
Monday will only be in the 60s (terrain) to low 70s (valleys).
Tuesday and Wednesday will each be a few degrees warmer then the
previous day. With clear skies and calm winds, conditions will be
favorable for radiational cooling Monday night. This should be the
coldest night, with temperatures potentially dropping into the mid
30s for some of the normally colder locations of the ADKs,
Catskills, and southern Greens. Given the cold temperatures,
patchy frost will be possible. Given that the growing season is
still ongoing in these areas, frost advisories may be needed if
confidence increases for more widespread temperatures in the
low to mid 30s. Tuesday night may still feature some upper 30s
in the high terrain, but clouds may begin to increase as an area
of low pressure tracks off the east coast Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Wednesday night will be even a few degrees warmer
with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s with the airmass aloft
moderating. Patchy fog will be possible each night in the
typical areas.
Thursday through Saturday night...While the exact timing remains
uncertain, there is good agreement from deterministic and
ensemble guidance for a cold front to track southwards through
the region Thursday afternoon or night. Moisture looks very
limited, so we are not expecting much in the way of
precipitation with this frontal passage. Thursday will be the
warmest day of the week ahead of the front, with temperatures in
the upper 70s to possibly near 80 for a few valley locations.
It will likely become breezy with/behind the frontal passage,
but given uncertainty in timing we opted not to deviate from
NBM winds just yet. Behind the front, high pressure once again
builds over our region for the end of the week into the first
half of the weekend. Another cool airmass moves over our region
behind the cold front, so temperatures will likely be in the
60s to mid 70s for highs each day. Overnight lows get chilly
again, with some 30s possible each night in the high terrain and
40s for most of the rest of the region. For days 8-14, the CPC
is leaning towards continued below normal precip, with near
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z/Mon...Rain has exited to the east with dry weather
expected for the upcoming TAF period. Cigs have also risen to
the VFR range at all sites and should remain VFR through the TAF
period, outside of any patchy fog development tonight at
KGFL/KPSF. West to southwesterly wind at 5-10 kt will continue
this afternoon then become light to calm tonight. Wind will be
variable at less than 10 kt on Monday.
Outlook...
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Main
DISCUSSION...Main
AVIATION...Rathbun

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion