Chilchinbito, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

636
FXUS65 KFGZ 261120
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 AM MST Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the region through Sunday. Some stronger storms may
contain large hail, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall, which
could lead to flash flooding. Conditions dry out by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Low pressure will continue moving SSE toward Yuma
today, where it will then stay through Saturday night. The southern
progression of this low is allowing for more easterly flow over
Arizona, which is currently moving the convective boundary westward.
As a result, we expect more of Yavapai County to become involved
today, especially along the I-17 corridor.
This will continue to be the case Saturday as the low entrains more
moisture, with convection eventually reaching the Lower Colorado
River. Shear, helicity and CAPE values over parts of central and
western Arizona today and Saturday continue to support isolated
severe. Roughly the next 24 hours continues to support isolated
rotating cells.
By Sunday, the low opens up and ejects. We expect another day of
numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday, but the air mass will
have become fairly cold and stabilized at that time, so the threat
of severe will diminish.
Much drier westerly flow sets up in the wake of this ejecting low
and PoPs approach zero from Monday onward.
&&
.AVIATION...Friday 26/12Z through Saturday 27/12Z...SCT-NMRS
SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA through the the period. Storms may produce
areas of MVFR. Sfc winds outside of storms will not affect flight
operations.
OUTLOOK...Saturday 27/12Z through Monday 29/12Z...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA
and ISOLD +TSRA through most the the period. Thunderstorm activity
will decrease rapidly from west top east Sunday night. Storms may
produce areas of MVFR. Sfc winds outside of storms will not affect
flight operations.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Expect thunderstorm coverage
to shift southwestward today, with eastern Yavapai County and the
Mogollon Rim seeing enhanced activity. Storm activity will decrease
overnight, but may stay active over the far southern portions of the
district. Scattered storms then continue on Saturday. Winds outside
of any thunderstorm activity will be southerly at 5 to 15 mph.
Sunday through Tuesday...Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms continue through Sunday, with much drier and slightly
warmer conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Winds outside of any
thunderstorm activity will be southerly at 5 to 15 mph each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion