Citrus Ridge, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

735
FXUS62 KMLB 160731
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
331 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all
  area beaches today, entering the water is discouraged
- Low rain chances through Today, coverage gradually increases
  from south to north mid to late week; locally heavy rainfall
  possible across the Treasure Coast Thursday into Friday
- Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal this week and
  into early next week, especially across the south, where higher
  coverage of clouds and rain are forecast
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Today-Tonight... A mid-upper cutoff low will expand across the
southeast US through the day as it slowly shifts northward. The
surface low pressure near the coast of the Carolinas will push
onshore the Mid-Atlantic coast into the evening. While drier air
remains over the local area, low level moisture will begin to build
over ECFL, with PW values raising to 1.4-1.6". Despite this slight
rise in moisture, below normal shower and lightning storm chances
will continue. There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of
rain from Osceola/southern Brevard County southward this afternoon
and early evening. Due to dry air above 700mb, lightning storms will
remain limited today. Any storms that do form will be capable of
producing occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-45 mph,
and locally heavy rainfall. North to northeast winds 5-10 mph will
veer more easterly and increase to 10-15 mph in the afternoon behind
the east coast sea breeze. Much like Monday, temperatures will be
slightly below to near normal for this time of year, with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 80s. A High risk of rip currents continues
at all beaches today. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged.
Tonight, isolated to scattered showers remaining possible from
Melbourne southward and towards Okeechobee county. The highest rain
chances will be along the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, mostly dry
conditions. Overnight lows will range from upper 60s to low 70s
across the north and low to mid 70s across the south.
Wednesday... The cutoff low aloft centered around NC/VA will be
gradually absorbed into an upstream trough by late Wednesday into
Thursday as it slowly shifts northward. At the surface, the low
pressure near NC/VA is forecast to help lift the surface boundary
northward across the Florida peninsula, as the low moves
northeastward. Locally, NE winds 5-10 mph will become more easterly
and increase to 10-15 mph in the afternoon behind the east coast sea
breeze. Moisture will continue to increase across the southern
portion of the Florida peninsula. Which is supported by the forecast
PW values rising to near 2" across southern portions of the local
area, while areas along and north of I-4 look to remain somewhat dry
(~1.5-1.7"). Due to this tight gradient, rain chances will be 50-60%
for the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, and 20-40% or less
from around Melbourne northward. Lightning storm chances will also
be on the rise, with isolated to scattered storms forecast in the
afternoon and early evening. Storm threats will be occasional to
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts 40-50 mph, and locally heavy
rainfall. However, any threat for locally heavy rainfall will likely
be confined to the Treasure Coast. Scattered showers and storms are
forecast to continue through the overnight from Brevard
County southward and towards Okeechobee County.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal due to the
high cloud cover as well as the onshore flow. Afternoon highs will
be in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will continue to be in
the low to mid 70s.
Thursday-Tuesday... The mid-upper level trough axis across the
eastern US on Thursday will gradually shift eastward into the
Atlantic as a low pressure over Canada deepens and moves eastwards
towards Quebec and the far northeast US into the weekend and early
next week. The aforementioned surface low pressure will move
northeast off of the New England coast and open into a trough.
Deeper moisture will continue to build northward across the Florida
peninsula each day, with a surface boundary settling near to just
south of the local area late late week into early weekend. This
boundary will shift southward just off the Florida peninsula/across
the Florida Keys into early next week.
The greatest potential for locally heavy rain fall continues to
be Thursday into Friday as forecast PW values increase to 2"+ from
around Melbourne southward, with comparably drier air ( PW values
of 1.5"-1.7") farther inland and northwest. The highest coverage
of showers and storms on Thursday looks to be along and inland
from the Treasure Coast. This may help put a dent in the drought
conditions across portions of the Treasure Coast. However, with
training of showers and locally heavy rainfall, minor flooding
concerns remain for Thursday across the Treasure Coast despite the
dry antecedent conditions.
Despite increasing moisture from south to north, models continue to
show a moisture gradient persisting over the area. Thus, even with
PW values increasing north and west of I-4 through early next week,
the PW values will remain below the values across the south. Because
of this, a gradient for rain chances will exist. A medium chance
(60-70 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms are forecast
south of Melbourne and towards Okeechobee each day, with 30-50
percent chance to the north and west. Exactly where this gradient
develops, however, will be dependent on the location of the
boundary. Onshore flow will persist through the time period, with
speeds increasing to 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze each afternoon.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal, especially
where added cloud cover prohibits more efficient daytime heating.
Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Today-Saturday... Boating conditions will gradually improve today,
with favorable boating conditions forecast into the weekend.
Northeast winds will become more easterly into mid to late week with
speeds around 10-12 KT. Wind speeds will increase to 10-15 KT late
week and into the weekend, as a surface boundary reestablishes over
the area. Seas 3-5 ft with occasional seas up to 6ft in the Gulf
Steam this morning will gradually improve through the day, with seas
3-5ft prevailing through the weekend. Isolated showers and storms
will largely be confined to the Gulf Stream and southern Treasure
Coast waters through Wednesday, until deeper moisture brings higher
rain and isolated lightning storm chances late week and into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Mostly VFR through today into tonight. Moisture will begin to
increase a bit today, especially across southern portions of east
central FL, which may lead to a slight increase in shower/storm
coverage this afternoon compared to yesterday. However, rain
chances still remain below normal around 20-40%, mainly near to
south of Orlando. For now have VCSH at KMCO/KISM from 20Z-02Z and
VCTS from 19-23Z from KMLB to KSUA where instability will be a
little higher for storm development. Confidence not high enough to
include at tempo groups for this activity at this time, but any
showers and storms will produce brief IFR/MVFR conditions.
Light N/NE winds this morning around 5-6 knots or less will become
E/NE up to 8-11 knots behind the inland moving east coast sea
breeze into the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  73 /  10   0  10  20
MCO  89  72  89  73 /  20  10  30  20
MLB  86  76  86  75 /  20  20  40  40
VRB  87  75  86  75 /  30  30  50  50
LEE  88  71  89  72 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  88  71  88  73 /  10  10  20  20
ORL  89  72  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
FPR  87  74  86  74 /  30  30  50  50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion