Clear Fork, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

349
FXUS61 KRLX 272302
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
702 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier tonight through Monday as an upper ridge takes control.
Moisture from a tropical system may approach by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...
Scattered to numerous showers continue this afternoon across
the northeast mountains and nearby lowlands in an area of
enhanced lift, amid moisture advection from the south, as a
mid-level trough shifts east across the area. Mean steering flow
remains light, generally 5-15 kts, resulting in slow movement
of showers, some locally heavy. Localized totals of 1-2" have
occurred this morning and afternoon, but given higher FFG,
no issues have been reported. This activity should continue
lifting northeast out of the CWA over the next couple hours.
Further southwest (SW VA towards the central WV mountains),
clearing skies have resulted in some modest destabilization
(500-1000 J/kg), resulting in some SCT land forced shower/storm
development, amid broader scale ascent. Brief heavy downpours
and gusty winds are possible with this activity, but no severe
weather is expected. Finally, dry conditions persist across the
northwest lowlands amid mostly sunny skies. Dry conditions will
quickly return area-wide by late this evening as the trough
axis pivots east of the CWA. High temperatures will vary
significantly today, with above normal northwest (~ +5), to
below normal southeast (~ -5).
A quiet overnight is expected amid some developing valley fog
and low stratus. Expect fog coverage to be more widespread than
last night, with dense fog possible in spots. Lows will bottom
out in the 50s across much of the CWA.
Building high pressure from the north will bring a dry and warm
finish to the weekend, amid plenty of sunshine. Highs will be ~
5-10 degrees above normal, translating to upper 70s to mid 80s
across the lowlands.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...
Traversing high pressure to the north of our region will
provide a dry short term period. Highs on Monday will be above
normal once again, with upper 70s to mid 80s in the lowlands,
while mid 60s to low 70s in the mountains. Low temperatures
Sunday night and Monday night will generally range from the low
50s to low 60s, ~ 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year, with some valley fog expected both nights. Increasing
cloud cover is expected late Monday and Monday night as what is
currently Tropical Depression Nine approaches the Carolinas and
moisture creeps north towards the region. Some shower activity
could occur Monday night across the far south/east.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...
The long term period will focus on Tropical Depression Nine as
it lifts northwest towards the Carolinas late Monday into
Tuesday. Guidance continues to refine the track of the system,
but overall, impacts locally continue to progressively look
more minimal. For instance, the latest GEFS ensemble suite keeps
the circulation offshore with all ensemble members. Even so,
some moisture is possible across the area Monday night and
Tuesday, but any impacts look very minor, with any rain that
does occur likely being of the beneficial variety. PoPs for this
time frame have trended down a bit, currently only 20-30%.
Otherwise, high pressure builds from the northeast Wednesday
through Friday, providing mostly sunny and dry weather.
Temperatures throughout the period will generally run near or
slightly above normal, with some river valley fog possible each
night mid to late in the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 PM Saturday...
Showers present along the mountains will taper off as a system
pulls away from the area this evening. A mixture of fog and some
low ceilings are then expected to produce MVFR or worse
conditions at most terminals from late tonight into early Sunday
morning. CIGs/VIS will improve during the morning, with
building high pressure facilitating VFR and drier weather
throughout the area on Sunday.
Surface flow will be calm to light overnight, then light out of
the north to northeast on Sunday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions from
fog/stratus tonight into Sunday morning may vary from the
forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR is possible at night with low stratus and/or fog through
Tuesday morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...20/GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...20

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion