Clermont, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

408
FXUS62 KMLB 131929
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
329 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- Scattered showers and storms will continue today, with rain
  chances gradually decreasing late weekend into early next week.
- Gusty to breezy conditions are expected across much the area
  today, with windy conditions likely along the Volusia County
  coast.
- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue across the
  Volusia County and offshore Brevard County waters today. A High
  Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Rest of Today-Sunday...A sharp mid-upper level trough extending
down the eastern US will sweep across Florida, gradually
developing a mid-level cutoff low over the southeast US. A surface
low is already starting to develop over the Western Atlantic off
the southeast seaboard (looks like the ECM had the timing but the
GFS had the location) along the frontal boundary pushed south of
us in response to the trough. This is tightening the pressure
gradient across the northern half of the Florida peninsula,
producing northeasterly winds to around 20 mph with gusts to 30
mph along the Volusia coast, around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
further inland towards the Orlando Metro, and gradually decreasing
southward to around 10 mph from Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast.
Occasionally higher winds and gusts have been seen at times.
These winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon and
most of the evening, then gradually ease through the late evening
and early overnight to 5-10 mph from the north. The pressure
gradient will ease as the surface low drifts north and east,
resulting in more moderate winds Sunday, though breezy and gusty
conditions will remain possible along the Volusia coast.
Between the trough swinging through and more northerly flow
around the developing low, drier air will continue to filter down
decreasing rain chances. Despite the low-level moisture from the
stout onshore flow today, dry air above is killing most deep
convection, and isolated to at best scattered low-top showers are
expected this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Can`t rule out
a few lightning storms but the odds are not in favor. Onshore
moving showers will remain possible during the overnight periods,
which could get hung up on the coast leading to locally heavy
rainfall. Afternoon highs slightly below normal in the M-U80s.
Monday-Friday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Models are coming
into better agreement now that the surface low over the western
Atlantic off the Southeast seaboard attendant to the trough aloft
has started to develop. The mid-level cutoff low developing over
the Southeast in the base of the trough will help gradually deepen
the surface low as both these features drift northeastward. There
is still some difference in the exact position and timing of
these features, but given how far east the low has developed,
confidence is now very high we`ll continue to see drier air
filtering from the north, keeping our rain chances down.
First half of the week should be the quietest weather we`ve seen
in a little while (relatively speaking), with rain chances 30-40
percent Monday and 20-30 percent Tuesday. By midweek, the
aforementioned low east of the area either weakens or lifts
northeast and the cutoff low aloft also transitions N/NE. Low to
mid level flow will veer to the E/SE through mid to late week and
allow for the deeper moisture suppressed to our south to gradually
build back northward across the area, with shower and storm
chances once again increasing up to 50-70 percent by Thursday-
Friday. Highs will continue in the mid to upper 80s through next
week, with lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Rest of Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions
continue across the Volusia Atlantic waters from NNE-NE 15-25 kts
and seas up to 7 ft. Gradual improvement is expected after around
8 PM, but winds 15-20 kts and seas up to 6 ft will linger through
much of the night, especially the seas in the Gulf Stream. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Volusia waters through
10 PM, and small craft should exercise caution through the
overnight. To the south, N/NNE winds generally 10-15 kts off the
Space and Treasure Coasts this afternoon settle to 5-10 kts late
tonight with seas 3-5 ft, up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream offshore
of the Space Coast, where Small craft should exercise caution.
Bands showers and isolated lightning storms will be possible,
especially up north in the stronger flow.
Sunday-Wednesday (Modified Previous Discussion)...N/NE winds
continue tomorrow into early next week, as the low pressure system
off the southeast seaboard gradually deepens while slowly shifting
N/NW. Poor boating conditions are forecast to redevelop across the
nearshore Volusia County waters Sunday as wind speeds increase
back to 15-20 knots, especially during the afternoon hours.
Otherwise, wind speeds will be generally less than 15 knots. Winds
will gradually veer to the E/NE through mid week, with wind speeds
remaining below 15 knots. Seas 3-5 feet. Coverage of showers and
storms are forecast to gradually decrease across the waters late
weekend into early next week as drier air builds into the area,
but scattered showers and occasional storms will still be
possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Isolated to scattered showers have developed across northern
portions of the area early this afternoon. Timing and coverage
through the rest of the day remain uncertain, as models struggle
with onshore-moving convection. Thus, have maintained VCSH across
the area through at least 0Z, though brief MVFR CIGs/VIS will be
possible in any heavier showers. Isolated TS also cannot be ruled
out. Showers may continue along the coast overnight, with
additional showers possible over the interior Sunday afternoon.
Breezy to gusty winds, especially from around ISM/MCO/TIX
northward. The strongest winds will continue to be around DAB,
with sustained winds around 15 kts and gusts to 25 kts. Locally
enhanced wind gusts in showers will be possible. Elsewhere, winds
10-15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts. Along the coast from MLB
southward, north-northeast winds are forecast to remain around 10
kts. Winds will remain elevated into the evening hours for
MCO/SFB/DAB, before diminishing into the overnight. Northeast
winds continue Sunday, though a little less gusty.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  84  71  85 /  40  40  20  30
MCO  71  87  70  88 /  20  40  10  30
MLB  73  86  73  86 /  30  40  20  30
VRB  71  87  72  87 /  30  30  20  30
LEE  70  87  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
SFB  71  86  70  87 /  30  40  20  30
ORL  71  86  71  88 /  20  40  10  30
FPR  70  87  71  88 /  30  40  20  30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-570.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion