314 FXUS61 KCLE 090512 AFDCLEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 112 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS... The area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure through Wednesday. A weak trough will move across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will build back into the region from the north for Thursday into Friday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The next 36 hours will be quiet with high pressure to the east controlling the weather. Southerly return flow will allow for temperatures to climb a bit higher today with mid 70s and Wednesday with mid-to-upper 70s. The weak pressure gradient across the region and better temperature differential between the lake and land will help a lake breeze develop during the afternoon hours. Given warmer daytime temperatures, low temperatures tonight will be less cool in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The uneventful weather pattern will continue through Friday night. For Wednesday night into Thursday, a weak surface trough will cross the forecast area as an upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes region. While these broader lifting mechanisms exist, the atmosphere will remain very dry with a continental air mass and dew points in the 40s and 50s, where any rain generation is not expected. In addition, the air mass aloft is only marginally cooler with the incoming upper trough, so any lake effect clouds or rain is not expected at this time. Therefore, will maintain the dry forecast for the first half of the short term period. For the second half, high pressure will build into the region from the north as an upper ridge builds in from the west. Dry weather remains expected and temperatures will creep up a bit higher with mid 70s to lower 80s for highs on Friday.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... There is still some low potential in the dry weather pattern breaking for the weekend into next week. However, any rain would certainly not be a drought-buster or ruin any weekend outdoor plans. The local area will be in the middle of an upper trough digging into the northeast US, while an upper ridge will build into the central US and advance eastward. The upper trough would support a low pressure system northeast of the area, which would extend a cold front into the area and allow for just a slight chance of rain at this time. The concern for rain potential is that the upper ridge will win out with a warmer, but drier air mass and the rain would stay northeast of the local area and any cold frontal passage would be dry. With that, have some slightly above normal temperatures for Saturday, but temperatures may come down a bit toward normal for Sunday and Monday.
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.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Aloft, WNW`erly flow backs to SW`erly over our entire region by 15Z/Tues and then remains SW`erly through 06Z/Wed as a ridge axis moves from the western Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface, the ridge continues to affect northern OH and NW PA as the embedded high pressure center moves NE`ward from northern New England to Newfoundland. Our regional surface winds will tend to be either variable in direction or SE`erly and around 5 knots in magnitude. However, a lake breeze is expected along and very near Lake Erie between ~17Z/Tues and ~00Z/Wed, including at KCLE and KERI.
Fair weather and primarily VFR are expected through the TAF period. However, localized river valley steam fog is expected in northern OH and NW PA, and localized radiation fog is expected in far-NW OH, including at KTOL. Fog will vary in density and therefore resulting visibility reductions will vary between MVFR and LIFR. Fog is expected to dissipate between 12Z and 14Z/Tues, following the onset of daytime warming and resulting convective mixing of the boundary layer.
Outlook...Fair weather and VFR are likely through this Saturday.
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.MARINE... A ridge of high pressure will exit to the northeast tonight but will continue to influence the local area through Wednesday night. Light northeast winds this afternoon and evening will generally trend southerly to southeasterly Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak cold front will approach Lake Erie from the north on Thursday before another area of high pressure builds overhead from the north. These two features will turn winds northeasterly to northerly Thursday and Friday. Winds during this time frame will remain between 5 and 10 knots.
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.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.
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SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...13
NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion