Climax, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

883
FXUS63 KFGF 171502
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1002 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A wet period setting up from tonight thru Friday night, with
  focus for highest rainfall potential being southeast North
  Dakota and west central Minnesota. Outdoor activities plus
  ongoing harvest will be impacted to varying degrees.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Most of the ground fog has dissipated, although some low stratus
is still hanging around parts of northwestern MN. Showers and
thunderstorms have so far been staying south and west of our CWA
so tweaked POPs to slow them down a bit. Still, could see some
showers on our side of the SD border later this afternoon.
UPDATE
Issued at 655 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Patchy ground fog made itself known by 10z so updated for a
broad patchy fog wording thru 13z in north/east areas of the
region. Otherwise showers increasing northwest thru eastern and
central SD into southwest ND. Timing of showers still look
reasonable based on 06z model data.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...Synopsis...
The upper air pattern has supported upper low development over
the Dakotas for the past week. The next one will be forming
today into tonight, as one 500 mb low is dropping south into
southeast Saskatchewan this morning and will meet up with an
upper low in Wyoming and form one upper low in central ND by
Thursday night. 00z model guidance and ensemble data via DESI
indicate potentially a strong enough 500 mb ridge builds east
and forces upper level wave more north-northeast into Manitoba
by Saturday and NW Ontario Sunday. But as it does overall
weakening trend is noted.
...Tonight-Friday night rain....
850 mb moisture will advect north and northwest around the
upper low with strongest advection Thursday into Friday morning.
Heaviest rainfall focused in southeast ND westward with
strongest deformation zone forcing roughly in the area just west
of the Missouri river from southern ND into SD. Elevated
instability Thursday of 500-800 j/kg MU CAPE does advect into
west central MN and southeast ND with 850 mb low and surface low
00z Fri in between Bismarck and Jamestown. So thunderstorms are
anticipated in SE ND and WC MN Thursday aftn/eve. Overall upper
level and sfc low weaker than the most recent one that gave
tornadoes to central ND. Also less of a warm sector on east edge
of system. It is noted that 00z ECMWF and EC ensembles are
about 12 hours slower with operational GFS and has higher
instabilty and rainfall more Thursday overnight and thru
Friday. Track of system will bring much lighter rain amounts to
far northeast fcst area, with peak in southeast ND. 00z ECMWF is
more bullish with heavier rain farther north/northwest than
operational Canadian and GFS. Rainfall forecasts from NBM and
WPC are less from their 00z Wed forecasts from 12z Tues. PWATS
remain on the high end of climatology with PWATS 1.2 to 1.6 inch
range, above the 90th percentile from NAEFS. ECMWF EFI has over
90th percentile for rain amounts but back into south central ND
into central SD. So overall some differences in amount of
rainfall, which is not unusual, and likely also tied to
convective rainfall potential.
Rainfall chances being to lower Saturday and mostly dry
conditions Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 655 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Outside of patchy ground fog to start, VFR condition anticipated
with increasing cirrus today into tonight. Rain shower chances
increase into Fargo mostly later tonight, but not enough
confidence on timing to introduce any to TAFs. Thru 12z any
precip at Fargo would be light.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion