Collyer, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

474
FXUS63 KDDC 201740
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense Fog Advisory for areas generally along and west of
  Highway 83 through the mid morning hours behind weak cold
  front.
- A more robust storm system will arrive Monday/Monday Night
  bringing an increased chance for scattered to numerous
  thunderstorms -- including a severe thunderstorm risk.
- Cooler weather is likely Tuesday and Wednesday following a
  strong cold front. Probabilities of highs in the 60s in the
  20-40% range west of a Dodge City to Liberal to Hays line for
  Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Late night strong to marginally severe thunderstorms moved southeast
away from southwestern Kansas overnight as the latest disturbance
moved east out of the region. A weak front followed this wave,
however the winds behind the front were not all that strong. That
being said, the northeasterly post-frontal winds attained enough
upslope component with good moisture remaining in place, favoring
the development of fog across far western Kansas. A Dense Fog
Advisory was issued based on these atmospheric conditions and strong
signals from high resolution models such as the HRRR and RAP. As of
0830Z, dense fog was fairly widespread across northwestern Kansas
which matched previous runs of the HRRR and RAP runs fairly closely,
so we feel fairly confident that this area of dense fog will
continue to build southward, mainly along/west of Highway 83 to the
Colorado line.
An upper level ridge will build across the Four Corners region
across the Southern Rockies late this weekend but will quickly be
replaced by an upstream northern stream digging jet streak. This
northern stream trough will approach Colorado and the Central High
Plains Monday with a fairly strong cold front following. This will
lead to a favorable environment for numerous strong to severe storms
across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. The latest SPC Day 3
Convective Outlook has a fairly large 5% risk area (combined severe
prob) across much of Oklahoma, Kansas and southern Nebraska,
including our southwest Kansas region. POPs have been increased to
40-50% across much of west central and southwest Kansas and into
south central Kansas.
Latest 00Z global model runs now show a 500mb low closing off
somewhere across eastern Colorado or western Kansas on Tuesday as
the system moves east across the Central Plains. This would favor a
period of cool, rainy weather just to the north of the low track
Tuesday/Tuesday evening, but models are still fairly unstable with
respect to run-to-run consistency when it comes to timing and track
of the mid level cyclone, so further adjustments of POP/Wx grids are
likely going into Tuesday. Temperatures may also be lowered as
models come into better agreement given strength of the low level
cold advection and degree of low cloudiness behind the system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A few isolated thunderstorms persist across southwest Kansas as
of 12pm CDT. This ongoing convection is diminishing based on
radar trends and is expected to dissipate before impacting any
TAF sites. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated
overnight, primarily between 06Z and 12Z Sunday, as an upper
level trough crosses western Kansas. Following these storms a
moist easterly upslope flow will develop, setting the stage for
fog development early Sunday morning. While guidance does not
indicate a high potential for dense fog...BUFR soundings
suggest saturated near surface air will be possible which will
likely reduce visibilities at least into the 2-4 mile range in
fog between 09Z and 15Z Sunday. As for sky cover...Garden City
continues to report IFR conditions at 17z today but based on
satellite trends and model guidance these IFR conditions will
give way to VFR conditions between 18z and 19z today.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion